BackgroundThe prognostic role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been proposed in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). However, it is currently unclear which cutoff values of NLR could consistently and independently differentiate HNSCC patients to better and worse prognosis groups.MethodsWe performed a meta-analysis of prognostic significance of pretreatment NLR values, using data extracted from 24 relevant articles. Main outcomes were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in HNSCC patients. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated using the random effect model for outcomes. Impacts of NLR cutoff values across the studies were assessed with a meta-regression analysis. Results were validated using an independent data set of patients (n = 540).ResultsPretreatment high NLR values above the cutoff were significantly associated with shorter OS (HR = 1.96, 95%CI = 1.66–2.31) and DFS (HR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.41–2.54). Of note, NLR cutoffs ranging from 1.9 to 6.0 did not affect HR of OS or DFS in meta-regression analyses. In an independent cohort, any NLR cutoff between 2 and 6 produced significant HR of OS, similarly. Instead of binary cutoffs, three subgroups of NLR (< 2, 2 to 6, and ≥ 6) showed significant differences of OS in survival analyses.ConclusionsMeta-analyses confirmed that pretreatment NLR values above the cutoff were associated with shorter survival in HNSCC patients. However, the binary cutoffs of NLR values were variable across studies. Rather, pretreatment NLR values below 2 and above 6 using a three-tier classification (< 2, 2 to 6, and ≥ 6) could consistently imply better and worse prognosis in HNSCC patients, which could be readily translated to clinics.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4876-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.