This study conducts price discovery analysis in the Chinese gold market. Our result indicates that the price discovery in Chinese gold market occurs predominantly in the futures market. The result is robust to the different measures of price discovery, namely information share, component share, and information leadership share. Partitioning the daily trades into three trading sessions, we find that the dominance of the futures market occurs in all trading sessions. We further investigate the sequential price discovery within the spot market or futures market. We find that the price discovery of gold spot market and gold futures market occur in the night trading session.JEL: G10, G14
This study conducts price discovery analysis in the Chinese gold market. Our results indicate that Chinese gold market price discovery occurs predominantly in the futures market. The result is robust to numerous different measures of price discovery, namely, information share, component share, and information leadership share. Partitioning the daily trades into three trading sessions, we find that the dominance of the futures market occurs consistently in all trading sessions. Furthermore, we investigate sequential price discovery within the spot and futures markets; finding that price discovery of both markets occurs more in the night trading session.
This study conducts an investigation of intraday time-series momentum across four Chinese commodity futures contracts: copper, steel, soybean, and soybean meal. Our results indicate that the first half-hour return positively predicts the last half-hour return across all four futures. Furthermore, in metals markets, we find that first trading sessions with high volume or volatility are associated with the strongest intraday time-series momentum dynamics. Based on this, we propose an intraday momentum informed trading strategy that earns a return in excess of standard always long and buy-and-hold benchmarks.
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