Climate variability in Jordan is very sensitive to water resources, which are at the verge of depletion because annual per-capita water is at one of the lowest levels in the world. In order to address such sensitivity, it is necessary to examine effective meteorological factors such as annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation and extreme (maximum and minimum) temperature time series. Fourteen representative meteorological stations are chosen for the study of climate variability calculations in Jordan. Annual and monthly time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures are tested by the runs (Swed-Eisenhart) homogeneity test. Consequently, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall rank trend and the linear trend tests are applied to the interannual means, coefficient of variation and skewness parameters. Signals of climate trends such as warming in maximum temperature, more statistically significant warming in minimum temperature, decreasing trends in daily temperature range and statistically insignificant decreasing precipitation trends are detected, which are enhanced by heat island, urbanization, pollution and aerosols effects. Two spells are recognized in the time series, where the first spell started in the early 1970s and the second beyond the year 1992 with a warming trend in maximum temperature and a farther warming in minimum temperature resulting in a decreasing trend in the diurnal temperature range that is associated with a slight decrease in precipitation. The interannual coefficient of variation of maximum and minimum temperatures reveals increasing trends in the majority of the stations while they exhibit an apparent decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range and a general, but insignificant, decreasing trend in precipitation is observed.
This paper evaluates climate variability over Jordan by considering temporal and spatial variations on the basis of annual and seasonal meteorological variables including precipitation, relative humidity (RH), maximum and minimum temperatures over 30 years at 16 representative observation stations over the whole country. The assessments are based on the statistical parameters such as the averages, coefficient of variation and skewness (SK). These parameters are mapped through the Kriging regional variability approach. Seasonal and annual parameter maps are presented and the climate variability interpretations are derived for the purpose of identifying climatologically homogenous precipitation regions. Climatic regions, temperature and humidity regimes, aridity and drought conditions in the country are determined, and the country is divided into three homogeneous precipitation regions.
Given Jordan's limited water resources and the doubling of its population over the last two decades, the gap between water demand and supply has been constantly increasing. Climate change is anticipated to worsen this situation by jeopardizing existing water resources. In the present study, SWAT was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the northern regions of Jordan. Global climate models (GCM) were used to assess the future impacts of climate change on water resources in the study area. The analyses of three different GCM-generated datasets indicate that stream flow rates are expected to decrease by up to 22 % by the year 2080. This decrease will be particularly severe in the months of maximum peak flow (February and March), perhaps reaching as much as 35-40 %. A minor increase in stream flow rates is expected to occur in some months. Based on these results, impacts of climate change are projected to raise water deficits in Jordan. Therefore, it is crucial to review Jordan's 2008-2022 National Water Strategy.
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