Landslide susceptibility indices were calculated and landslide susceptibility maps were generated for the Oudka, Morocco, study area using a geographic information system. The spatial database included current landslide location, topography, soil, hydrology, and lithology, and the eight factors related to landslides (elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to roads, distance to faults, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI]) were calculated or extracted. Logistic regression (LR), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARSpline), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were the methods used in this study to generate landslide susceptibility indices. Before the calculation, the study area was randomly divided into two parts, the first for the establishment of the model and the second for its validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates. The MARSpline model gave a higher success rate (AUC (Area Under The Curve) = 0.963) and prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) than the LR model (AUC = 0.918 and AUC = 0.901) and the ANN model (AUC = 0.886 and AUC = 0.877). These results indicate that the MARSpline model is the best model for determining landslide susceptibility in the study area.
The Rif is among the areas of Morocco most susceptible to landslides, because of the existence of relatively young reliefs marked by a very important dynamics compared to other regions. These landslides are one of the most serious problems on many levels: social, economic and environmental. The increase in the frequency and impact of landslides over the past decade has demonstrated the need for an in-depth study of these phenomena, allowing the identification of areas susceptible to landslides. The main objective of this study is to identify the optimal method for the mapping of the area susceptible to landslides in municipality of Oudka. This area has been marked by the largest landslide in the region, caused by heavy rainfall in 2013. Two Statistical Methods i) Regression Logistics (LR) ii) Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), were used to create a landslide susceptibility map. The realization of this susceptibility map required, first, the mapping of old landslides by the aerial photography, the data of the geological map and by the data obtained using field surveys using GPS. A total of 105 landslides were mapped from these various sources. 50% of this database was used for model building and 50% for validation. Eight independent landslide factors are exploited to detect the most sensitive areas: altitude, slope, aspect, distance of faults, distance streams, distance from roads, lithology and vegetation index ( NDVI). The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates. The success rate (AUC = 0.918) and the prediction rate (AUC = 0.901) of the LR model is higher than that of the ANN model (success rate (AUC = 0.886) and prediction rate (AUC = 0.877)) . These results indicate that the Regression Logistic (LR) model is the best model for determining landslide susceptibility in the study area.
The AguelmamAzegza lake is located in the Middle Atlas mountain range, this region consists of carbonate rocks of Lias. It is the best-watered and richest region in Morocco in terms of wetlands, especially natural lakes, rivers and fresh springs. The lake’s water supply is ensured by the inflows of water in the form of underwater sources fed by precipitation (rain and snow) following tectonics and the genesis of karstic formations by the dissolution of carbonate rocks. The declining trend in lake levels in recent years results from the decrease in precipitation which decreases during these years.
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