Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of negative information on the volatility of real estate residential prices in Abuja, Nigeria.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical research covers a sample period of 17 years from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2017. The leverage effect of Abuja’s real estate residential price volatility is determined. Exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is used to determine the ARCH shock, GARCH persistence and the leverage effect of the volatility of residential prices in Abuja.
Findings
The research found that the volatility of real estate prices varies from one category of residential property to another. The leverage effect was found only in the price of two and three bedroom flats in Abuja.
Originality/value
The findings provide useful information on the volatility of real estate prices for real estate investors. The study has policy implications for the regulation of measures that gradually checkmate the patterns of volatility in the Nigerian real estate market. It also controls negative information (such as a fall of crude oil prices, high costs of building materials, inconsistency of macro-economic policies and insecurity and political uncertainty) which mainly raises the level of uncertainty in the market and exposes investors to risk.
Understanding the relationship between real estate price and macroeconomic variables in developed countries is appreciated first by considering the housing role in the macro economy. In modern capitalist economy, real estate sector remains the most important element of aggregate demand. Since residential real estate comprises the bulk of country’s tangible capital, the study on relationship between residential real estate price and macro economic variables are very significant for formulation of social and economic policies. The aim of this study is to examines the relationship between real estate residential price and macroeconomic variables in Nigerian economy. The study identified GDP, inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate and crude oil price as the major determinants of real estate price in Nigeria and they have significant impact on real estate market in general.
This paper examined the impact of macroeconomic variables on real estate price forecasting modelling in Abuja, Nigeria using the family of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The ARIMA and ARIMAX models were used to forecast real estate residential price in Abuja, Nigeria using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2017Q in Naira (N). The outcome revealed that, macroeconomic variables such as consumer price index, price of crude oil, exchange rate of Naira against US dollar, GDP, interest rate, household income has significant positive impact on the real estate residential price forecasting models of 2 bedroom flat, 3 bedroom flat and 5 bedroom flat, while they have strong negative impact on the price forecasting model of 4 bedroom flat. Moreover, ARIMA and ARIMAX provides best out of sample forecasting models.
This paper compared the out of sample forecasting ability of two Box-Jenkins ARIMA family models: ARIMAX and ARIMA. The forecasting models were tested to forecast real estate residential price in Abuja, Nigeria with quarterly data of average sales of residential price from the first quarter of year 2000 to the last quarter of year 2017. The result shows that the ARIMAX forecasting models, with macroeconomic factors as exogenous variables such as the household income, interest rate, gross domestic products, exchange rate and crude oil price and their lags, provide the best out of sample forecasting models for 2 bedroom, 3 bedroom, 4 bedroom and 5 bedroom, than ARIMA models. Generally, both ARIMA and ARIMAX models are good for short term forecasting modelling.
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