The purpose of the study to reveal how interest rates on loans offered to
consumers by banks in Turkey are affected by macroeconomic factors. For
this purpose, the personal loan interest rate is considered as the consumer
loan interest rate, mortgage loan interest rate and vehicle loan interest rate.
Macroeconomic factors, inflation, gold, exchange rate and money supply
are included in the analysis. Three models have been established using
monthly data for the period January 2009-June 2020. Firstly, cointegration
test was applied to the models and it was determined that there is at least
one cointegration relationship in each model. Long-term estimation results
for the models are obtained by using the FMOLS method. In general, it was
observed that the increase in the exchange rate tended to increase the bank
loan interest rates, while the increase in the money supply lowered the bank
loan interest rates. As a result of the causality analysis, bidirectional
causality relationship from consumer loan interest rate to money supply and
inflation, unidirectional causality from interest rate to gold price,
unidirectional causality relationship from exchange rate to interest rate was
determined. Unidirectional causality relationship from mortgage loan
interest rate to money supply, unidirectional causality from exchange rate
to interest rate was found. While it was determined that there is a
bidirectional causality relationship between vehicle loan interest rate and
money supply, gold price and inflation. It is expected that these results may
guide banks and policymakers to determine interest rate policies.
Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme oranı ve özel sektör yatırımlarının finansal hizmetlere erişim üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu doğrultuda 1980-2019 dönemi verileri kullanılmış ve değişkenlerin farklı düzeylerde durağan oldukları belirlenmiştir. ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ortaya konulmuştur. FMOLS ve DOLS eşbütünleşme regresyonları yardımıyla ARDL sınır testi ile belirlenen uzun dönem katsayıların doğruluk kontrolü gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre; özel sektör yatırımları finansal erişimi pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkilemektedir. Diğer taraftan ekonomik büyüme oranının finansal hizmetlere erişim üzerinde anlamlı bir etki göstermediği sonucu elde edilmiştir.
The purpose of the study to reveal how interest rates on loans offered to consumers by banks in Turkey are affected by macroeconomic factors. For this purpose, the personal loan interest rate is considered as the consumer loan interest rate, mortgage loan interest rate and vehicle loan interest rate. Macroeconomic factors, inflation, gold, exchange rate and money supply are included in the analysis. Three models have been established using monthly data for the period January 2009-June 2020. Firstly, cointegration test was applied to the models and it was determined that there is at least one cointegration relationship in each model. Long-term estimation results for the models are obtained by using the FMOLS method. In general, it was observed that the increase in the exchange rate tended to increase the bank loan interest rates, while the increase in the money supply lowered the bank loan interest rates. As a result of the causality analysis, bidirectional causality relationship from consumer loan interest rate to money supply and inflation, unidirectional causality from interest rate to gold price, unidirectional causality relationship from exchange rate to interest rate was determined. Unidirectional causality relationship from mortgage loan interest rate to money supply, unidirectional causality from exchange rate to interest rate was found. While it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between vehicle loan interest rate and money supply, gold price and inflation. It is expected that these results may guide banks and policymakers to determine interest rate policies.
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