This study proposes a method for assessing the risk of ship hull collapse following a collision. A probabilistic approach is applied to establish the relationship between the exceedance probability of collision versus the residual ultimate strength index. A set of credible collision scenarios which represent the entire range of possible collision accidents is selected using a sampling technique based on probability density distributions of influencing parameters. The amount and location of collision damage for selected individual collision scenarios are characterised using the LS-DYNA nonlinear finite element method. The ultimate hull girder strength of a ship with predefined collision damage is then calculated using the ALPS/HULL intelligent supersize finite element method. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, applied examples are given, involving collisions with a hypothetical Suezmaxclass double-hull oil tanker. Based on the results, design formulations for predicting the residual strength index of damaged ship hulls are derived in an empirical manner. The examples show that the proposed method will be very useful for evaluating the risk of collapse of a ship's hull after sustaining collision damage, which may contribute to a collision risk-based design (RBD) framework. Moreover, the method will be useful in rescue and salvage operations immediately after a collision by permitting a rapid assessment of the structural safety of a damaged ship.
The primary objective of the present study is to develop a rapid method for calculating hull collapse strength of double hull oil tankers after collisions. For this purpose, the statistical characteristics of hull girder collapse after collision are studied. Four double hull oil tankers with different size are considered: Panamax, Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC. A set of 50 credible collision scenarios are selected by a sampling technique associated with the collision hazard identification based on the historical ship collision database. Four parameters, namely vertical collision location, damage penetration, striking ship's bulbous bow height, and striking ship's bulbous bow length are determined as a consequence of the corresponding collision scenario. The intelligent supersize finite element method is used to compute the progressive collapse behaviour of hull girder structures with the collision damages so determined. The residual hull girder strength indices can then be determined and formulated in a closed expression associated with collision damages and ship length. The developed formulations will be useful to quickly calculate the hull collapse strength of double hull oil tankers immediately after collisions.
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