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Interdependence in trade and financial globalization has increased the vulnerability of developed and developing countries to external shocks alike, whereas emerging markets are more vulnerable to the shocks originating from the world’s leading economies. This paper investigates the impact of the uncertainty from the global economic policy on the return of the Indonesian stock market by using the time-varying correlation based on the rolling window method and time-varying built dynamic conditional correlation method. Both the rolling window and condition correlation estimates indicate that the correlation between global policy uncertainty and Indonesian stock returns is time-varying. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag-based regression indicate that inflation, global crude oil prices, gross domestic product, and world crude oil production have significant impacts on the dynamic conditional correlation. The average negative estimate of time-varying correlation suggests that investors when faced with liquidity constraints in one country may sell off their assets in another country to raise funds in order to meet their future financial needs. This also indicates that the rise in the uncertainty of economic policy in developed markets has a negative impact on the shocks faced by the Indonesian stock market. Based on our empirical findings, it is recommended that Indonesian policymakers should place more focus on the sustainability of the economic growth, pay close attention to volatile crude oil prices, world crude oil production, and inflation so as to avoid dynamic interaction between the uncertainty of economic policy in the developed markets and the return of the Indonesian stock market.

This article examines the responsiveness of changes in the unemployment rate to changes in output for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) using aggregate and disaggregated data from 1991 to 2018. We also split the entire sample period into two subsamples (from 1991 to 2008 and 2009 to 2018) to see the responsiveness of changes in the unemployment rate to changes in the GDP in pre and post global financial crisis period of 2007–2008. Three different econometric methods were employed for conducting the analysis. Results obtained from aggregated and disaggregated data for the entire sample and two subsamples confirm the validity of the Okun law for BRICS. The postcrisis period Okun’s law estimates are larger than those from the full sample and precrisis period. Disaggregated data results show private consumption is the main determinant of the unemployment rate and its estimate is negative and significant. Along with consumption expenditures, other variables that have relevancy in determining changes in the unemployment rate are government expenditures, exports, and imports. Based on aggregated and disaggregated data results, it is recommended that the relevant authorities must focus sustainable economic growth for reducing unemployment rate in the country. Particularly, they must incentivize consumption and government expenditures, boost exports, and curtail imports for reducing the unemployment rate.

To work with a model based approach to Exchange Market Pressure, estimation on level data may be spurious. This paper addresses that issue by utilizing a Cointegration framework to estimate parameters of a Weymark's (1995) model. Based on Weymark (1995) model's estimated parameters, an exchange market pressure and an intervention index is constructed. The results indicate downward pressure and active Central Bank intervention. Post reform period shows a drop in market pressure and the central bank foreign exchange intervention. An intervention index mean value for the entire period suggests that foreign exchange reserves relieved most of the pressure. This has an important policy implication that monetary authorities in Pakistan are not independent in formulating an effective monetary policy.

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