Mountain farming communities in Pakistan are exhibiting an increased rate of rural-to-urban migration and a rapid growth in the non-farm sector, which has threatened the sustenance of agricultural activity. This study examined the determinants of farm succession using a logit regression model and employed a multinomial logit regression model to study the factors influencing the future occupational choices of the potential farm successors. The study was based on quantitative survey data obtained from 421 farm managers and 155 potential farm successors and qualitative data from 12 key informants from two different districts in Gilgit-Baltistan. The survey results show that around 67% of the farmers had a potential successor. Farm succession was mainly explained by farmer characteristics (e.g., farmer age, gender and education), farm characteristics (e.g., farm size, specialization in horticulture, etc.) and agricultural income. Regarding the occupational choices, part-time farming (66%) was the most commonly reported choice. The results indicate that it was mainly farm successors’ personal characteristics (such as age, education and marital status) and agricultural income that led to the choices “undecided” and “exit”, whilst farm characteristics (e.g., farm size) and the main farm operators’ non-farm activity were significantly associated with the choice “part-time”. Policies aimed at improving the local income situation and investments in skill-building and infrastructure development can assist in farm sustenance.
Non-farm income sources are important for livelihood sustenance, especially in the mountainous regions of developing countries. To implement effective policies to improve economic development, policymakers need insights at the grassroots level. Yet, there is a lack of empirical evidence in the context of Pakistan. This study examines the current situation and the factors influencing the decision by farmers to engage in other gainful activities (OGAs) such as farm diversification and off-farm work in the northern mountainous regions of Pakistan. The study is based on quantitative survey data obtained from 459 farm managers and qualitative data from 24 key informants from five different districts in Gilgit-Baltistan. Utilizing a logistic regression model, a statistical analysis is conducted on farmer and farm characteristics to investigate the probability of farm managers to engage in OGAs. The survey results show that around 71% of farm managers are engaged in OGAs (with 24% in farm diversification, 61% in offfarm work and 15% in both). The share of female farm managers is 51% in farm diversification while male farm managers dominate off-farm activities (69%). The most prevalent types of farm diversification are the processing of farm products and tourism-related farm work, while the main off-farm activities are setting up grocery stores outside the farm, having salaried jobs or engaging in other non-agricultural business. There are significant differences between farmers with and without OGAs particularly regarding farmer characteristics, agricultural income and some other variables. The logit model results show that farmer characteristics mainly determine off-farm work activities while farm (and other) characteristics mostly explain farm diversification. These findings suggest that OGAs primarily exist as livelihood strategies. Farm diversification is linked with the long-term sustenance of agricultural activities while off-farm work is predominantly driven by economic needs. Both types of OGAs require specific support policies while attention needs to be given not to threaten regional food supply.
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