/npsi/ctrl?lang=en http://nparc.cisti-icist.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/npsi/ctrl?lang=fr Access and use of this website and the material on it are subject to the Terms and Conditions set forth at http://nparc.cisti-icist.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/npsi/jsp/nparc_cp.jsp?lang=en NRC Publications Archive Archives des publications du CNRCThis publication could be one of several versions: author's original, accepted manuscript or the publisher's version. / La version de cette publication peut être l'une des suivantes : la version prépublication de l'auteur, la version acceptée du manuscrit ou la version de l'éditeur. For the publisher's version, please access the DOI link below./ Pour consulter la version de l'éditeur, utilisez le lien DOI ci-dessous.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. psep.2007.10.002 Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 86, 2, pp. 141-148, 2008-03-01 Multimedia fate of oil spills in a marine environment -an integrated modelling approach Nazir, M.; Khan, F.; Amyotte, P.; Sadiq, R.http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/irc M ult im e dia fa t e of oil spills in a m a rine e nvironm e nt -a n int e gra t e d m ode lling a pproa c h NRCC-50446Nazir, M.; Khan, F.; Amyotte, P.; Sadiq, R. March 2008A version of this document is published in / Une version de ce document se trouve dans:Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 86, (2), March, pp. 141-148, March 01, 2008, DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2007 The material in this document is covered by the provisions of the Copyright Act, by Canadian laws, policies, regulations and international agreements. Such provisions serve to identify the information source and, in specific instances, to prohibit reproduction of materials without written permission. For more information visit http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/showtdm/cs/C-42Les renseignements dans ce document sont protégés par la Loi sur le droit d'auteur, par les lois, les politiques et les règlements du Canada et des accords internationaux. Ces dispositions permettent d'identifier la source de l'information et, dans certains cas, d'interdire la copie de documents sans permission écrite. Pour obtenir de plus amples renseignements : http://lois.justice.gc.ca/fr/showtdm/cs/C-42 A fugacity-based methodology is presented to predict the fate of spilled oil in the marine environment. In the proposed methodology, oil weathering processes are coupled with a level IV (dynamic) fugacity-based model. A エ キ ッ セ 」 ッ ュ ー 。 イ エ ュ ・ ョ system, comprised of water and sediment, is used to explore the fate of oil in a marine environment.During a spill, oil is entrained into the water column due to natural dispersion, which is considered as the primary input source to the water compartment. The direct input to the sediment compartment is assumed negligible. However, the water column acts as a source to the sediment compartment. Unlike the conventional multimedia modelling approach, the impact area is not predefined. Instead, the oil slick spreading process determines the contaminated area growth. Naphthalene is used as a representative oil compound (an indicator) t...
This work presents a simple and efficient framework for the fatigue reliability assessment of a vertical top-tensioned rigid riser. The fatigue damage response is considered as a narrow-band Gaussian stationary random process with a zero mean for the short-term behavior of a riser. Non-linearity in a response associated with Morisontype wave loading is accounted for by using a factor, which is the ratio of expected damage according to a non-linear probability distribution to the expected damage according to a linear method of analysis. Long-term non-stationary response is obtained by summing up a large number of short-term stationary responses. Uncertainties associated with both the strength and stress parts of the limit state function are quantified by a lognormal distribution. A closed form reliability analysis is carried out, which is based on the limit state function formulated in terms of Miner's cumulative damage rule. The results thus obtained are compared with the well-documented lognormal format of reliability analysis based on time to fatigue failure. The validity of using the lognormal hazard rate function in predicting the fatigue life is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used as a reliability assessment method. A simple algorithm is used to reduce the uncertainty associated with direct sampling at small probability of failure values and a small number of simulations. Simulation results are compared with closed form solutions. A worked example is included to show the practical riser design problem based on reliability analysis.
This study illustrates a newly developed methodology, as a part of the U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework, to predict exposure concentrations in a marine environment due to underwater release of oil and gas. It combines the hydrodynamics of underwater blowout, weathering algorithms, and multimedia fate and transport to measure the exposure concentration. Naphthalene and methane are used as surrogate compounds for oil and gas, respectively. Uncertainties are accounted for in multimedia input parameters in the analysis. The 95th percentile of the exposure concentration (EC(95%)) is taken as the representative exposure concentration for the risk estimation. A bootstrapping method is utilized to characterize EC(95%) and associated uncertainty. The toxicity data of 19 species available in the literature are used to calculate the 5th percentile of the predicted no observed effect concentration (PNEC(5%)) by employing the bootstrapping method. The risk is characterized by transforming the risk quotient (RQ), which is the ratio of EC(95%) to PNEC(5%), into a cumulative risk distribution. This article describes a probabilistic basis for the ERA, which is essential from risk management and decision-making viewpoints. Two case studies of underwater oil and gas mixture release, and oil release with no gaseous mixture are used to show the systematic implementation of the methodology, elements of ERA, and the probabilistic method in assessing and characterizing the risk.
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