The spread of traffic jams in urban networks has long been viewed as a complex spatio-temporal phenomenon that often requires computationally intensive microscopic models for analysis purposes. In this study, we present a framework to describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation of traffic in cities using a simple contagion process, inspired by those used to model infectious disease spread in a population. We introduce two novel macroscopic characteristics of network traffic, namely congestion propagation rate and congestion dissipation rate . We describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation using these new parameters, , and , embedded within a system of ordinary differential equations, analogous to the well-known Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. The proposed contagion-based dynamics are verified through an empirical multi-city analysis, and can be used to monitor, predict and control the fraction of congested links in the network over time.Unlike individual link traffic shockwaves in a two-dimensional time-space diagram, which are categorized as forward or backward moving, network traffic jams evolve in multi directions over space. Therefore, we propose that a network's propagation and recovery can be characterized by two average rates, namely the congestion propagation rate and a congestion recovery rate , which together reflect the number of congested links in the network over time. These two macroscopic characteristics are critical in modeling congestion propagation and dissipation as a simple contagion process [21].Despite the complex human behavior-driven nature of traffic, we demonstrate that urban network traffic congestion follows a surprisingly similar spreading pattern as in other systems, including the spread of infectious disease in a population or diffusion of ideas in a social network, and can be described using a similar parsimonious theoretical network framework. Specifically, we model the spread of congestion in urban networks by adapting a classical epidemic model to include a propagation and recovery mechanism dependent on time-varying travel demand and consistent with fundamentals of network traffic flow theory. We illustrate the model to be a robust and predictive analytical model, and validate the framework using empirical and simulation-based numerical experiments.
Measuring urban environmental performance supports understanding and improving the livability and sustainability of a city. Creating a more livable and attractive environment facilitates a greater shift to active and greener transport modes. Two key aspects, among many others, that determine the environmental performance of an urban area are greenery and noise. This study aims to map street-level greenery and traffic noise using emerging data sources including crowd-sourced mobile phone-based data and street-level imagery data in Sydney, Australia. Results demonstrate the applicability of emerging data sources and the presented advanced techniques in capturing the seasonal variations in urban greenery and time-dependent nature of traffic noise. Results also confirm the presence of a negative correlation between urban greenery and traffic noise.
Simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models play a vital role in transportation planning and operations. While the widely studied equilibrium-seeking DTA including dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) often provides robust and consistent outcomes, their expensive computational cost for large-scale network applications has been a burden in practice. The noniterative stochastic route choice (SRC) model, as a nonequilibrium seeking DTA model, provides an alternative for specific transportation operations applications that may not require equilibrium results after all (e.g., evacuation and major network disruptions) and thus tend to be computationally less expensive, yet may suffer from inconsistent outcomes. While DUE is a widely accepted approach for many strategic planning applications, SRC has been increasingly used in practice for traffic operations purposes. This paper aims to provide a comparative and quantitative analysis of the two modeling approaches. Specifically, a comparison has been made at two levels: link-level flows and network-level congestion patterns. Results suggest that adaptive driving improves the quality of the SRC solution, but its difference from DUE still remains significant at the link level. Results have practical implications for the application of large-scale simulation-based DTA models for planning and operations purposes.
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