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An important issue faced by risk analysts is how to deal with uncertainties associated with accident scenarios. In industry, one often uses single values derived fro m historical data or literature to estimate events probability or their frequency. However, both dynamic environments of systems and the need to consider rare component failures may make unrealistic this kind of data. In this paper, uncertainty encountered in Layers Of Protection Analysis (LOPA) is considered in the framework of possibility theory. Data provided by reliability databases and/or experts judgments are represented by fuzzy quantities (possibilit ies). The fu zzy outcome frequency is calculated by extended mu ltip licat ion using αcuts method. The fu zzy outcome is co mpared to a scenario risk tolerance criteria and the required reduction is obtained by resolving a possibilistic decision-making problem under necessity constraint. In order to validate the proposed model, a case study concerning the protection layers of an operational heater is carried out.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the impact of operational and environmental conditions (risk influencing factors) on the component criticality of safety barriers, safety barrier performance and accidents frequency and therefore on risk levels. Design/methodology/approach The methodology focuses on the integration of criticality importance analysis in barrier and operational risk analysis method, abbreviated as BORA-CIA. First, the impact of risk influencing factors (RIFs) associated with basic events on safety barrier performance and accident frequency is studied, and then, a risk evaluation is performed. Finally, how unacceptable risks can be mitigated regarding risk criteria is analyzed. Findings In the proposed approach (BORA-CIA), the authors show how specific installation conditions influence risk levels and analyze the prioritization of components to improve safety barrier performance in oil and gas process. Practical implications The proposed methodology seems to be a powerful tool in risk decision. Ordering components of safety barriers taking into account RIFs allow maintenance strategies to be undertaken according to the real environment far from average data. Also, maintenance costs would be estimated adequately. Originality/value In this paper, an improved BORA method is developed by incorporating CIA. More precisely, the variability of criticality importance factors of components is used to analyze the prioritization of maintenance actions in an operational environment.

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