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Drought over Nepal is studied on the basis of precipitation as a key parameter. Using monthly mean precipitation data for a period of 33 years, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is produced for the drought analysis with the time scale of 3 months (SPI-3) and 12 months (SPI-12) as they are applicable for agriculture and hydrological aspects, respectively. Time-space variability is explored based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) along with Rotated PCA (RPCA). Four rotated components were explored for both SPI-3 and SPI-12 representing climatic variability with cores over eastern, central and western Nepal separately. Droughts associated with SPI-3 occurred almost evenly over these regions. Droughts associated with SPI-12 were consistent with SPI-3 for summer, since summer precipitation dominates annual precipitation. Connection between SPI and the climate indices such as Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) was studied, suggesting that one of the causes for summer droughts is El Nino, while the winter droughts could be related with positive DMI. Keywords: Standardized Precipitation Index; Nepal; Principal component analysis; Drought DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jhm.v7i1.5617 JHM 2010; 7(1): 59-74

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The 3D pathways of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in the Indian Ocean are identified using an OGCM, with a combined set of tools: 1) Lagrangian particle trajectories, 2) passive tracers, and 3) active tracers (temperature and salinity). Each of these tools has its own advantages and limitations to represent the watermass pathways. The Lagrangian particles, without horizontal and vertical mixing, suggest that at the entrance region the surface ITF subducts along the northwestern coast of Australia and then travels across the Indian Ocean along the thermocline depths. The subsurface ITF more directly departs westward and crosses the Indian Ocean. Using the passive tracers, which are mixed vertically under convection as well as horizontally due to diffusion, the ITF is shown to undergo vigorous mixing as soon as it enters the Indian Ocean and modifies its upper temperature-salinity (T-S) characteristics. Thus, the surface and subsurface ITF watermasses lose their identities.Upon reaching the western boundary, the ITF reroutes into three distinct depth ranges, owing to the seasonal reversal of the Somali region: route 1-across the Indian Ocean just to the south of the equator (200-300 m); route 2-across the Indian Ocean to the north of the equator (100-200 m); and route 3-upwells in the Somali region and spreads all over the surface of the northern Indian Ocean. The seasonality of the Somali Current is crucial to spread the ITF along route 3 during the summer monsoon (April-October) and route 2 during the winter monsoon (November-March). The basinwide spreading is responsible for a long residence time of the ITF in the Indian Ocean to be at least 20 yr.The effects of the ITF on the temperature and salinity are mainly accompanied with the major pathways. However, indirect effects are visible in a few spots; that is, the warm and saline feature is produced in the subsurface off the southwestern coast of Australia around 30°S caused by the eastward surface current, which is under the thermal wind relationship owing to the warm and fresh ITF component. This component also enhances vertical convection and warms the surface around 40°S. The Arabian Sea high salinity water is produced extensively with the effects of the Somali upwelling, which is originally strengthened by the fresh and warm ITF.

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