Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalized patients are always at risk of death. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used as a potential solution for predicting mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients. So, our study aimed to compare several ML algorithms to predict the COVID-19 mortality using the patient’s data at the first time of admission and choose the best performing algorithm as a predictive tool for decision-making. Methods In this study, after feature selection, based on the confirmed predictors, information about 1500 eligible patients (1386 survivors and 144 deaths) obtained from the registry of Ayatollah Taleghani Hospital, Abadan city, Iran, was extracted. Afterwards, several ML algorithms were trained to predict COVID-19 mortality. Finally, to assess the models’ performance, the metrics derived from the confusion matrix were calculated. Results The study participants were 1500 patients; the number of men was found to be higher than that of women (836 vs. 664) and the median age was 57.25 years old (interquartile 18–100). After performing the feature selection, out of 38 features, dyspnea, ICU admission, and oxygen therapy were found as the top three predictors. Smoking, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet count were found to be the three lowest predictors of COVID-19 mortality. Experimental results demonstrated that random forest (RF) had better performance than other ML algorithms with accuracy, sensitivity, precision, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of 95.03%, 90.70%, 94.23%, 95.10%, and 99.02%, respectively. Conclusion It was found that ML enables a reasonable level of accuracy in predicting the COVID-19 mortality. Therefore, ML-based predictive models, particularly the RF algorithm, potentially facilitate identifying the patients who are at high risk of mortality and inform proper interventions by the clinicians.
Introduction: Needless to say that correct and real-time detection and effective prognosis of the COVID-19 are necessary to deliver the best possible care for patients and, accordingly, diminish the pressure on the healthcare industries. Hence our paper aims to present an intelligent algorithm for selecting the best features from the dataset and developing Machine Learning(ML) based models to predict the COVID-19 and finally opted for the best-performing algorithm. Methods: In this developmental study, the clinical data of 1703 COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients Using a single-center registry from February 9, 2020, to December 20, 2020, were used. The Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) feature selection algorithm identified the most relevant variables. Then, chosen features feed into the several data mining methods, including K-Nearest Neighbors, AdaBoost Classifier, Decision Tree, HistGradient Boosting Classifier, and Support Vector Machine. A 10-fold cross-validation method and six performance evaluation metrics were used to evaluate and compare these implemented algorithms, and finally, the best model was implemented. Results: Out of the 34 included features, 11 variables were selected as the essential features. The results of using ML algorithms indicated that the best performance belongs to the AdaBoost classifier with mean accuracy = 92.9%, mean specificity = 89.3%, mean sensitivity = 94.2%, mean F-measure = 91.6 %, mean KAPA = 94.3% and mean ROC = 92.1 %. Conclusion: The empirical results reveal that the Adaboost model yielded higher performance than other classification models and developed our Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) interface to discriminate positive COVID-19 from negative cases.
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