Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large-scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature-related physiological traits (i.e., temperature-dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.

While traditionally species recognition has been based solely on morphological differences either typological or quantitative, several newly developed methods can be used for a more objective and integrative approach on species delimitation. This may be especially relevant when dealing with cryptic species or species complexes, where high overall resemblance between species is coupled with comparatively high morphological variation within populations. Rock lizards, genus Darevskia, are such an example, as many of its members offer few diagnostic morphological features. Herein, we use a combination of genetic, morphological and ecological criteria to delimit cryptic species within two species complexes, D. chlorogaster and D. defilippii, both distributed in northern Iran. Our analyses are based on molecular information from two nuclear and two mitochondrial genes, morphological data (15 morphometric, 16 meristic and four categorical characters) and eleven newly calculated spatial environmental predictors. The phylogeny inferred for Darevskia confirmed monophyly of each species complex, with each of them comprising several highly divergent clades, especially when compared to other congeners. We identified seven candidate species within each complex, of which three and four species were supported by Bayesian species delimitation within D. chlorogaster and D. defilippii, respectively. Trained with genetically determined clades, Ecological Niche Modeling provided additional support for these cryptic species. Especially those within the D. defilippii-complex exhibit well-differentiated niches. Due to overall morphological resemblance, in a first approach PCA with mixed variables only showed the separation between the two complexes. However, MANCOVA and subsequent Discriminant Analysis performed separately for both complexes allowed for distinction of the species when sample size was large enough, namely within the D. chlorogaster-complex. In conclusion, the results support four new species, which are described herein.

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5–10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future.

Aim Diversification and rapid radiation are well documented in lacertid lizards. Niche conservation is frequently observed among related taxa, whereby niches will not change much during speciation events. Here, we investigate the relationship between environmental niche divergence and phylogenetic relatedness in a widespread group of green lizards, the Lacerta trilineata group.Location Eastern Mediterranean, Anatolia and adjacent regions.Methods A dated phylogeny based on three mitochondrial genes was contextualized using species distribution models of all genetically identified lineages in the Lacerta trilineata group. Based on this analysis, ancestral climatic niche occupancy was reconstructed using niche occupancy profiles. Niche divergence among lineages was quantified by computing multivariate niche overlaps.Results All taxa are associated with humid areas, but there is extensive variation in their climatic niche breadths and positions, which accord with the main phylogenetic split in the group. Our results suggest divergent niche evolution within subclades and convergent evolution among clades, which implies only a limited degree of niche conservatism regarding annual variations in temperature and precipitation. In contrast, niche axesmainly reflecting precipitation patterns of the coldest quartershow a greater difference among clades than within clades, and therefore a higher degree of niche conservatism.Main conclusions Based on estimated divergence times between taxa and geological events in Anatolia, our results can be explained by fragmentation of the range of a hypothetical ancestral species, resulting in different adaptations of subclades either to humid continental climates or to more Mediterranean climates. Our study highlights deviations from classical niche conservatism theory due to significant niche shifts among sister taxa.

Based on an integrative taxonomic approach, we examine the differentiation of Southeast Asian snail-eating turtles using information from 1863 bp of mitochondrial DNA, 12 microsatellite loci, morphology and a correlative species distribution model. Our analyses reveal three genetically distinct groups with limited mitochondrial introgression in one group. All three groups exhibit distinct nuclear gene pools and distinct morphology. Two of these groups correspond to the previously recognized species Malayemys macrocephala (Chao Phraya Basin) and M. subtrijuga (Lower Mekong Basin). The third and genetically most divergent group from the Khorat Basin represents a previously unrecognized species, which is described herein. Although Malayemys are extensively traded and used for religious release, only few studied turtles appear to be translocated by humans. Historic fluctuations in potential distributions were assessed using species distribution models (SDMs). The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) projection of the predictive SDMs suggests two distinct glacial distribution ranges, implying that the divergence of M. macrocephala and M. subtrijuga occurred in allopatry and was triggered by Pleistocene climate fluctuations. Only the projection derived from the global circulation model MIROC reveals a distinct third glacial distribution range for the newly discovered Malayemys species.

The oriental green lizards of the Lacerta trilineata group are widely distributed in Greece, Anatolia, the eastern Mediterranean, the southern Caucasus, and the Zagros mountains in Iran. We studied their phylogeography using three mitochondrial markers with comprehensive sampling from most representatives of the group. Their phylogeny and divergence times (implementing fossil-based molecular clock calibrations) were inferred using Bayesian methods, and haplotype networks were reconstructed to assess how genetic diversity and current distributional patterns were shaped. According to our phylogenetic analyses, the group constitutes a well-supported monophylum containing several distinct evolutionary lineages with high haplotype diversity. Vicariance might explain the divergences within most lineages that have accumulated by range restriction and expansion of populations as a result of Quaternary climate oscillations and glacial refugia. However, niche divergence appears to be a major force promoting speciation, and large scale distributional patterns between lineages were shaped earlier by multiple, independent dispersals out of Anatolia during the Pliocene and early Pleistocene. The results of the present study also suggest that the group is in need of a taxonomical revision because the identified lineages and genetic diversity are not congruent with the currently recognized subspecies.

Aim The ocellated lizards of the genus Timon, comprising six species that are distributed across continental Asia, Europe and Africa, offer an interesting model to study the evolution of ecological niches through comparative phyloclimatic analysis. Our study provides insights into the evolutionary history of the ocellated lizards and helps to understand the role of climatic niche evolution during the speciation process.Location Eastern and western margins of the Mediterranean basin.Methods A dated molecular phylogeny was estimated based on three mitochondrial and two nuclear genes. Using multivariate statistics, species distribution models were developed to characterize the Grinnellian niches of all species. Subsequently, ancestral environmental niche occupancy of each taxon was reconstructed using niche occupancy profiles. Niche divergence among species was quantified by computing multivariate niche overlaps via twodimensional and n-dimensional approaches.Results Phylogenetic analysis supports that the ancestor of Timon diverged into the eastern and western groups following multiple vicariance events that shaped the current distribution pattern of Palaearctic lizards. High complexity in the ecological niche evolution between the Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean climatic regions was detected. The generally low niche divergence among members of the eastern group and the remarkable climatic divergence within the western group highlight an important role of temperature seasonality in a Mediterranean and Atlantic climate context. The results also suggest niche conservatism in terms of microhabitats described by vegetation cover. Main conclusionsThe ocellated lizards provide an interesting example of a vertebrate radiation where niche shift (with or without vicariance) and niche conservatism alternate in different niche axes shaping current biogeographical patterns.

Lepidodactylus lugubris is a parthenogenetic gecko which has been increasingly expanding its range during the last century. This invasive species has been reported from multiple tropical and subtropical countries in five continents, most of which were colonized in recent times. In order to understand how the realized niche of the species was affected by this dramatic geographic range expansion, we reconstructed the history of the geographic range expansion. We built models of the realized niche of the species at different points in time during the invasion process. This was achieved through the implementation of modern hypervolume construction methods, based on the Hutchinson's niche concept. The models were then compared to detect possible realized climatic niche expansion over time. Furthermore, we investigated possible pathways used by the species to spread. A progressive expansion of the realized niche was identified. As the species spread into new areas, we observed a tendency to colonize regions with warmer temperatures and higher precipitation rates. Finally, we found evidence for cargo shipping being the major pathway through which the species expands its range. Further studies on this topic should aim to investigate the role of biological interactions, and how they shape the distribution of L. lugubris on a global scale. A deeper understanding of this kind of processes will help us tackle the issue of invasive species, which has become a major challenge in conservation biology.