There are a growing number of studies that model immunological processes in the artery wall that lead to the development of atherosclerotic plaques. However, few of these models use parameters that are obtained from experimental data even though data-driven models are vital if mathematical models are to become clinically relevant. We present the development and analysis of a quantitative mathematical model for the coupled inflammatory, lipid and macrophage dynamics in early atherosclerotic plaques. Our modeling approach is similar to the biologists' experimental approach where the bigger picture of atherosclerosis is put together from many smaller observations and findings from in vitro experiments. We first develop a series of three simpler submodels which are least-squares fitted to various in vitro experimental results from the literature. Subsequently, we use these three submodels to construct a quantitative model of the development of early atherosclerotic plaques. We perform a local sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to its parameters that identifies critical parameters and processes. Further, we present a systematic analysis of the long-term outcome of the model which produces a characterization of the stability of model plaques based on the rates of recruitment of low-density lipoproteins, high-density lipoproteins and macrophages. The analysis of the model suggests that further experimental work quantifying the different fates of macrophages as a function of cholesterol load and the balance between free cholesterol and cholesterol ester inside macrophages may give valuable insight into long-term atherosclerotic plaque outcomes. This model is an important step toward models applicable in a clinical setting.

This work is devoted to the development of a mathematical model of the early stages of atherosclerosis incorporating processes of all time scales of the disease and to show their interactions. The cardiovascular mechanics is modeled by a fluid-structure interaction approach coupling a non-Newtonian fluid to a hyperelastic solid undergoing anisotropic growth and a change of its constitutive equation. Additionally, the transport of low-density lipoproteins and its penetration through the endothelium is considered by a coupled set of advection-diffusion-reaction equations. Thereby, the permeability of the endothelium is wall-shear stress modulated resulting in a locally varying accumulation of foam cells triggering a novel growth and remodeling formulation. The model is calibrated and applied to an murine-specific case study, and a qualitative validation of the computational results is performed. The model is utilized to further investigate the influence of the pulsatile blood flow and the compliance of the artery wall to the atherosclerotic process. The computational results imply that the pulsatile blood flow is crucial, whereas the compliance of the aorta has only a minor influence on atherosclerosis. Further, it is shown that the novel model is capable to produce a narrowing of the vessel lumen inducing an adaption of the endothelial permeability pattern.

This study provides evidence that elastase-targeted imaging can be used for in vivo detection of early atherosclerosis. This imaging approach may harbor potential in the clinical setting for earlier diagnosis and treatment of atherosclerosis.

Atherosclerosis is a major burden for all societies and there is a great need for a deeper understanding of involved key inflammatory, immunological and biomechanical processes. A decisive step for the prevention and medical treatment of atherosclerosis is to predict what conditions determine whether early atherosclerotic plaques continue to grow, stagnate or become regressive. The driving biological and mechanobiological mechanisms that determine the stability of plaques are yet not fully understood. We develop a spatially resolved and quantitative mathematical model of key contributors of early atherosclerosis. The stability of atherosclerotic model plaques is assessed to identify and classify progression-prone and progressionresistant atherosclerotic regions based on measurable or computable in vivo inputs, such as blood cholesterol concentrations and wall shear stresses. The model combines Darcy's law for the transmural flow through vessels walls, the Kedem-Katchalsky equations for endothelial fluxes of lipoproteins, a quantitative model of early plaque formation from a recent publication and a novel submodel for macrophage recruitment. The parameterization and analysis of the model suggest that the advective flux of lipoproteins through the endothelium is decisive, while the influence of the advective transport within the artery wall is negligible. Further, regions in arteries with an approximate wall shear stress exposure below 20 % of the average exposure and their surroundings are potential regions where progressionprone atherosclerotic plaques develop.

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