In this study we aim to reveal consumer confidence linkages among EU countries using hierarchical cluster analysis method. Identifying clusters in terms of consumer confidence structure, we strive to reveal countries with similar consumers' socio-economic behaviour patterns. Results show that consumer confidence structure similarities define clusters of EU countries, located in the same sub-region of Europe in cases of all Northern Europe countries and almost all Western Europe countries (excluding Netherlands and Luxembourg). We find that Southern and Central-Eastern EU countries don't have a single socio-economic behaviour pattern, but rather tend to distribute to various clusters in terms of consumer confidence structure. Keywords: consumer expectations, consumer confidence, determinants of consumer confidence, cluster analysis, economic behaviour. Straipsniu siekiama atskleisti ES valstybių tarpusavio ryšius vartotojų ekonominių lūkesčių srityje, taikant klasterinės analizės metodą. Nustatant šalių klasterius vartotojų ekonominių lūkesčių atžvilgiu siekiama atskleisti šalių grupes, kurių vartotojams būdinga panaši socioekonominė elgsena. Tyrimo rezultatai parodė, kad Šiaurės Europos ES šalių atveju ir beveik visų Vakarų Europos ES šalių atveju (išskyrus Nyderlandus ir Liuksemburgą), vartotojų ekonominių lūkesčių struktūros panašumai ES šalyse skatina klasterių formavimąsi pagal atitinkamą Europos geografinę šalių klasifikaciją. Rezultatai taip pat parodė, kad Pietų bei Vidurio ir Rytų ES valstybių ekonominių lūkesčių struktūros skirtumai lemia jų pasiskirstymą į skirtingus klasterius ekonominių lūkesčių struktūros atžvilgiu. Reikšminiai žodžiai: vartotojų ekonominiai lūkesčiai, vartotojų ekonominių lūkesčių veiksniai, klasterinė analizė, ekonominė elgsena. JEL Classifications: D84/D12/C38/D10.
This article presents a method to evaluate determinants of consumer confidence and a research, based on suggested method, where determinants of consumer confidence in developed and developing European Union countries are examined. To set the main determinants of consumer confidence a time series ADL model is used. This research aims to contribute to research field of determinants of consumer confidence in EU developing countries: it reveals essential differences between determinants of consumer confidence in EU developed and developing countries, since there was no research on this issue so far.
In this study we use hierarchical cluster analysis to identify clusters in terms of consumer confidence and test the hypothesis whether Western and non-formerSoviet-Union Northern countries (Sweden, Denmark or Finland) may be “the core”, while Southern and former USSR countries may be considered as “periphery” in terms of consumer confidence (in respect with Krugman’s “core-periphery” model). Results show that consumer confidence similarities define clusters of EU countries, located in the same sub-region of Europe in cases of all Northern Europe countries and almost all Western Europe countries (excluding Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria). We find that Southern and Central–Eastern EU countries don’t have their united, single socio–economic behaviour pattern, but rather tend to distribute to various clusters in terms of consumer confidence. Our test for hypothesis of possible “core” and “periphery” countries in terms of consumer show that some of Western and non-former-Soviet-Union Northern countries (in this case we identified Sweden, United Kingdom and Luxembourg) may be considered as “the core”, while the rest Southern and former USSR EU countries may be considered as “periphery”. Keywords: consumer confidence, cluster analysis, core-periphery
In this article we present a method to reveal linkages among European Union countries under determinants of consumer confidence. Our empirical research results have shown that EU countries are linked among themselves under psychological factors influence to consumer confidence partly by geographical manner. Northern Europe countries -Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are linked by rational consumer confidence formation bias, while Western Europe countries -Ireland, United Kingdom, Netherlands and Southern Europe countries -Portugal, Italy and Greece are linked by emotional consumer confidence formation bias.
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