Currently, the knowledge of energy consumption in buildings of new and existing dwellings is essential to control and propose energy conservation measures. Most of the predictions of energy consumption in buildings are based on fixed values related to the internal thermal ambient and pre-established operation hypotheses, which do not reflect the dynamic use of buildings and users’ requirements. Spain is a clear example of such a situation. This study suggests the use of an adaptive thermal comfort model as a predictive method of energy consumption in the internal thermal ambient, as well as several operation hypotheses, and both conditions are combined in a simulation model: the Adaptive Comfort Control Implemented Model (ACCIM). The behavior of ACCIM is studied in a representative case of the residential building stock, which is located in three climate zones with different characteristics (warm, cold, and mild climates). The analyses were conducted both in current and future scenarios with the aim of knowing the advantages and limitations in each climate zone. The results show that the average consumption of the current, 2050, and 2080 scenarios decreased between 23% and 46% in warm climates, between 19% and 25% in mild climates, and between 10% and 29% in cold climates by using such a predictive method. It is also shown that this method is more resilient to climate change than the current standard. This research can be a starting point to understand users’ climate adaptation to predict energy consumption.
Energy poverty is a social problem that is accentuated in a climate change future scenario where families become increasingly vulnerable. This problem has been studied in cold weather, but it also takes place in warm climates such as those of Mediterranean countries, and it has not been widely targeted. In these countries, approximately 70% of its building stock was built during 1960–1980, its renovation being an opportunity to reduce its energy demand, improve tenants’ quality of life, and make it more resilient to climate change. In the retrofitting process, it is also important to consider tenants’ adaptability and regional scenarios. In this sense, the present work proposes an assessment model of retrofitting projects that takes into consideration energy consumption, comfort, tenants’ health, and monetary poverty. For this, the Index of Vulnerable Homes was implemented in this research to consider adaptive comfort in the energy calculation as well as the adaptability to climate change. A case study of 40 social housings in Seville, Spain, was analyzed in 2050 and 2080 future scenarios, defining the impact in energy poverty of the building retrofitting projects.
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