Geometric changes on a sample of Svalbard glaciers were studied using subtraction of repeat digital terrain models to determine early surge-stage dynamics. Changes in surface features were also analyzed. A number of new surges were found for glaciers not known to have surged previously. The surge development could be followed through three stages, of which the first two had not been previously described in Svalbard. The first two stages are mainly identified from glacier thickness changes and showed little visual evidence. In stage 1, initial surface lowering was found in the upper part of the glacier, followed by a thickening further down-glacier in stage 2. Stage 3 represents the period of well-developed surge dynamics that is usually reported. Some surges ceased at stage 2 as a partial surge and never developed into a fully active surge. These partial surges could be misinterpreted as rapid response to climate change. The results of this study further support previous findings that the majority of Svalbard glaciers are of surge type.

Abstract. Nathorstbreen glacier system (NGS) recently experienced the largest surge in Svalbard since 1936, and this was examined using spatial and temporal observations from DEM differencing, time series of surface velocities from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and other sources. The upper basins with maximum accumulation during quiescence corresponded to regions of initial lowering. Initial speed-up exceeded quiescent velocities by a factor of several tens. This suggests that polythermal glacier surges are initiated in the temperate area before mass is displaced downglacier. Subsequent downglacier mass displacement coincided with areas where glacier velocity increased by a factor of 100-200 times (stage 2). After more than 5 years, the joint NGS terminus advanced abruptly into the fjord during winter, increasing velocities even more. The advance was followed by up-glacier propagation of crevasses, indicating the middle and subsequently the upper part of the glaciers reacting to the mass displacement. NGS advanced ∼15 km, while another ∼3 km length was lost due to calving. Surface lowering of ∼50 m was observed in some up-glacier areas, and in 5 years the total glacier area increased by 20 %. Maximum measured flow rates were at least 25 m d −1 , 2500 times quiescent velocity, while average velocities were about 10 m d −1 . The surges of Zawadzkibreen cycle with ca. 70-year periods.

Abstract. The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) have run a national flood forecasting and warning service since 1989. In 2009, the directorate was given the responsibility of also initiating a national forecasting service for rainfall-induced landslides. Both services are part of a political effort to improve flood and landslide risk prevention. The Landslide Forecasting and Warning Service was officially launched in 2013 and is developed as a joint initiative across public agencies between NVE, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET), the Norwegian Public Road Administration (NPRA) and the Norwegian Rail Administration (Bane NOR). The main goal of the service is to reduce economic and human losses caused by landslides. The service performs daily a national landslide hazard assessment describing the expected awareness level at a regional level (i.e. for a county and/or group of municipalities). The service is operative 7 days a week throughout the year. Assessments and updates are published at the warning portal http://www.varsom.no/ at least twice a day, for the three coming days. The service delivers continuous updates on the current situation and future development to national and regional stakeholders and to the general public. The service is run in close cooperation with the flood forecasting service. Both services are based on the five pillars: automatic hydrological and meteorological stations, landslide and flood historical database, hydro-meteorological forecasting models, thresholds or return periods, and a trained group of forecasters. The main components of the service are herein described. A recent evaluation, conducted on the 4 years of operation, shows a rate of over 95 % correct daily assessments. In addition positive feedbacks have been received from users through a questionnaire. The capability of the service to forecast landslides by following the hydro-meteorological conditions is illustrated by an example from autumn 2017. The case shows how the landslide service has developed into a well-functioning system providing useful information, effectively and on time.

Nathorstbreen glacier system (NGS) recently experienced the largest surge in Svalbard since 1936, and is examined using spatial and temporal observations from DEM differencing, time-series of surface velocities from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and other sources. The upper basins with maximum accumulation during quiescence correspond to regions of initial lowering. Initial speed-up exceeds quiescent velocities by a factor of several tens of times. This suggests that polythermal glaciers surges are initiated in the temperate area before mass is displaced downglacier. Subsequent downglacier mass displacement coincides with areas of 100–200 times increased velocities (stage 2). After > 5 yr the joint NGS terminus advanced abruptly into tidewater during winter. The advance was followed by upglacier propagation of crevasses, indicating a re-action following from the already displaced mass and extending flow. NGS advanced ca. 15 km, while another ca. 3 km length was lost due to calving. Surface lowering of ca. 50 m was observed in some upglacier areas and during 5 yr the total area increased by 20%. Maximum measured flow rates were at least 25 m d⁻¹, 2500 times quiescence, while average velocities were about 10 m d⁻¹. The surges of Zawadzkibreen cycle with ca. 70 yr periods

Use of digital images is expanding as a tool for glacier monitoring, and small-format time-lapse cameras are increasingly being used for glacier monitoring of fast-flowing glaciers. Stereoscopic imagery is preferable since it yields direct displacement results but stereo photogrammetry has more requirements regarding geometry in set-up and control points, as well as the additional cost of another complete camera system. We investigate a combination of methods to achieve satisfactory control of accuracy with resulting significant day-to-day velocity variations ranging from 1.5–4 m day−1 made at a distance of 2 km. Validation of results was made by comparing different methods, partly using the same image material, but also in combination with aerial and satellite images. Monoscopic results can also be used to gain continuity in a stereo data set when geometry or visibility is poor. We also explore the use of ordinary photographs taken from airliners for compilation of orthoimages as a potential low cost method for detection of sudden changes. The method, showing some tens of metres accuracy, was verified for monitoring velocities and front positions during a glacier surge and was also used to validate monoscopic time-lapse images

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Hessbreen is a 5km2, polythermal glacier in southern Spitsbergen. It is believed to have surged at the end of the 19th century, and another surge started in 1969, not in 1972 as earlier studies suggested. The surge was probably triggered in the middle section of the glacier and affected the upper part approximately 4 years before including the whole glacier. Present velocities are low, increasing from 0.3m a-1 at the snout to 4.8 m a-1 above the equilibrium line. A distinct velocity reduction occurs where the glacier narrows. This suggests the velocities here are affected by the cold marginal and frontal ice. Large seasonal variations, with summer velocities of more than twice the winter velocities in the middle part of the glacier, indicate a seasonal change in the drainage system in this area. In the lower part there is no apparent sliding. The balance-flux estimate indicates that the actual ice flux is only about 50% of that required for steady state, so Hessbreen appears to be building up in the accumulation area. The surge duration is now estimated to be 8 years.

Abstract. Only few countries operate systematically national and regional forecasting services for rainfall-induced landslides (i.e