This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come. ARTICLE HISTORY
Abstract. Many environmental systems models, such as conceptual rainfall-runoff models, rely on model calibration for parameter identification. For this, an observed output time series (such as runoff) is needed, but frequently not available (e.g., when making predictions in ungauged basins). In this study, we provide an alternative approach for parameter identification using constraints based on two types of restrictions derived from prior (or expert) knowledge. The first, called parameter constraints, restricts the solution space based on realistic relationships that must hold between the different model parameters while the second, called process constraints requires that additional realism relationships between the fluxes and state variables must be satisfied. Specifically, we propose a search algorithm for finding parameter sets that simultaneously satisfy such constraints, based on stepwise sampling of the parameter space. Such parameter sets have the desirable property of being consistent with the modeler's intuition of how the catchment functions, and can (if necessary) serve as prior information for further investigations by reducing the prior uncertainties associated with both calibration and prediction.
Increase in irrigated area, driven by demand for more food production, in the semi-arid regions of Asia and Africa is putting pressure on the already strained available water resources. To cope and manage this situation, monitoring spatial and temporal dynamics of the irrigated area land use at basin level is needed to ensure proper allocation of water. Publicly available satellite data at high spatial resolution and advances in remote sensing techniques offer a viable opportunity. In this study, we developed a new approach using time series of Landsat 8 (L8) data and Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm by introducing a hierarchical post-processing scheme to extract key Land Use Land Cover (LULC) types. We implemented this approach for Mashhad basin in Iran to develop a LULC map at 15 m spatial resolution with nine classes for the crop year 2015/2016. In addition, five irrigated land use types were extracted for three crop years—2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 2015/2016—using the RF models. The total irrigated area was estimated at 1796.16 km2, 1581.7 km2 and 1578.26 km2 for the cropping years 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016, respectively. The overall accuracy of the final LULC map was 87.2% with a kappa coefficient of 0.85. The methodology was implemented using open data and open source libraries. The ability of the RF models to extract key LULC types at basin level shows the usability of such approaches for operational near real time monitoring.
Rain-gauge networks provide estimates of areal rainfall as a crucial input for hydrological applications.Hence, it is important to quantify the performance of a rain-gauge network and evaluate the contribution of each rain-gauge to the overall accuracy of areal rainfall estimation at basin scale. This paper evaluates the performance and augmentation of a rain-gauge network in a large basin in Iran. A probabilistic approach combined with a geographic information system (GIS) framework is applied, in order to assess the accuracy of point rainfall in terms of acceptance probability. A simple equation for calculating the acceptance probability is presented which facilitates the application of the probabilistic approach in a GIS environment. This approach analyzes the number and location of rain-gauges and quantifies each gauge's contribution to the accuracy of rainfall estimation over the study area. Results show that among 33 existing gauges, only 21 have significant effect on areal rainfall estimation while other 12 gauges have marginal contribution to the accuracy of the network. Also, by applying an augmentation algorithm, an optimal rain-gauge network with 28 gauges is formed.
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