This paper intends to present a new model for the accurate forecast of the stock’s future price. Stock price forecasting is one of the most complicated issues in view of the high fluctuation of the stock exchange and also it is a key issue for traders and investors. Many predicting models were upgraded by academy investigators to predict stock price. Despite this, after reviewing the past research, there are several negative aspects in the previous approaches, namely: (1) stringent statistical hypotheses are essential; (2) human interventions take part in predicting process; and (3) an appropriate range is complex to be discovered. Due to the problems mentioned, we plan to provide a new integrated approach based on Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). ABC is employed to optimize the technical indicators for forecasting instruments. To achieve a more precise approach, ANFIS has been applied to predict long-run price fluctuations of the stocks. SVM was applied to create the nexus between the stock price and technical indicator and to further decrease the forecasting errors of the presented model, whose performance is examined by five criteria. The comparative outcomes, obtained by running on datasets taken from 50 largest companies of the U.S. Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2018, have clearly demonstrated that the suggested approach outperforms the other methods in accuracy and quality. The findings proved that our model is a successful instrument in stock price forecasting and will assist traders and investors to identify stock price trends, as well as it is an innovation in algorithmic trading.
One of the most important issues on educational systems is to measure the relative efficiency of similar units based on non-financial factors. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has become popular among many who wish to rank educational systems using different factors such as the rate of educational success or the number of employees, etc. However, one of the main concerns on implementing DEA methods is the uncertainty involved in input/output parameters. In this paper, a robust data envelopment analysis (RDEA) is developed to measure the efficiency of high schools considering uncertainty on output parameters. We present an empirical study on a set of high schools located in Tehran, which is the capital city of Iran. The study uses uncertain data for input/output information and the results are compared with an existing parametric stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). The preliminary results indicate that the robust DEA approach is relatively a reliable method for efficiency estimating.
In this paper, we examine advanced optimization approach for portfolio problem introduced by Black and Litterman to consider the shortcomings of Markowitz standard Mean-Variance optimization. Black and Litterman propose a new approach to estimate asset return. They present a way to incorporate the investor's views into asset pricing process. Since the investor's view about future asset return is always subjective and imprecise, we can represent it by using fuzzy numbers and the resulting model is multi-objective linear programming. Therefore, the proposed model is analyzed through fuzzy compromise programming approach using appropriate membership function. For this purpose, we introduce the fuzzy ideal solution concept based on investor preference and indifference relationships using canonical representation of proposed fuzzy numbers by means of their correspondingα-cuts. A real world numerical example is presented in which MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International Index) is chosen as the target index. The results are reported for a portfolio consisting of the six national indices. The performance of the proposed models is compared using several financial criteria.
At the computational point of view, a fuzzy system has a layered structure, similar to an artificial neural network (ANN) of the radial basis function type. ANN learning algorithms can be employed for optimization of parameters in a fuzzy system. This neuro-fuzzy modeling approach has preference to explain solutions over completely black-box models, such as ANN. In this paper, we implement the design of experiment (DOE) technique to identify the significant parameters in the design of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) for stock price prediction.
This article presents a broad review of Hub location problem (HLP), and its applications. The goal of this article is to provide a review on the newest and most recent publications on Hub location and its application in real world practices since 2013. While, there are some articles which reviewed hub location problem literature but some models were not covered in those articles. In this paper, we try to include capacitated models. We survey advances in analysis and modeling of the hub location problem including its variants and solution algorithm of HLPs. We emphasize the most applicable areas for Marine Transpiration. We show that first, majority of the articles consider network domain, while there are some articles which execute HLP in discrete and continuous domain. Also, the capacitated case attracts more attention in recent years. Finally, the contribution of any type of HLP in the literature is shown schematically.
When a production facility is designed, there are various parameters affecting the number machines such as production capacity and reliability. It is often a tedious task to optimize different objectives, simultaneously. The other issue is the uncertainty in many design parameters which makes it difficult to reach a desirable solution. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model with two objectives. The primary objective function is considered to be the production capacity and the secondary objective function is total reliability. The proposed model is formulated on different units of production which are connected together in serial form and for each unit, we may have various machines. The resulted model is formulated using recent advances of robust optimization and solution procedure is analyzed with some numerical examples.
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