All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing July 1993 Environment Papers are published to commnunicate the latest results of the Bank's environmental work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does, not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of readers; the designations and presentation of material in them do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates, or its Board or member countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of the authorities thereof or concerning the delimitatiorL of its boundaries or its national affiliation.

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This paper measures climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method. The model examines the net revenue per hectare of the four most important crops in the country. The limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts, but the greater range of precipitation across the country distinguishesmore complex precipitation effects.We then examine the impacts of the climate predictions of five AOGCM models and two simple uniform change scenarios for SriLanka. The impacts of rainfall increases are predicted to be beneficial to the country as a whole in all five AOGCM scenarios, but temperature increases are predicted to be harmful. Nationally, the impacts vary from −11 billion rupees (−20 per cent) to +39 billion rupees (+72 per cent) depending on the climate scenarios. With warming, the already dry regions (the Northern and Eastern provinces), are expected to lose large portions of their current agriculture, but the cooler regions (the central highlands), are predicted to remain the same or increase their output. The paper reconfirms that climate change damages could be large in tropical developing countries, but highly dependent on the actual climate scenario.

Climate change and variability has become the primary environmental concern of the 21st Century. The potential impacts and mitigation of climate change need to be analyzed within the context of sustainable development. Primer on Climate Change and Sustainable Development presents a condensed and accessible review of the latest state-of-the-art assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The book begins with a foreword from the chair of the IPCC. Our current knowledge of the basic science of climate change is described, before moving on to future scenarios of development within the context of climate change. Possible adaptation and mitigation measures, including cost and benefit analysis, are discussed. The book will be an invaluable textbook for students of environmental science and policy, and researchers and policy makers involved in all aspects of climate change.

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