Although impacting primarily economic sectors, droughts may also initiate dynamic mechanisms that have socio-environmental consequences on sustainability of the impacted areas. To date, most research has dealt with the economic impacts of droughts, with minimal attention being paid to the dynamics of damaging mechanisms associated with socio-environmental impacts. Using a systemic approach, this paper develops a method of identifying the dynamic structures responsible for the consequences of drought. Considering the impacts of recent droughts in Iran, the paper presents a conceptual model, underpinned by a Limits to Growth archetype to explain how different drought impacts are triggered. Moreover, adopting the Viability Loops concept, a range of strategies and indices are suggested as monitoring tools to sustain socio-economic life in a drought-impacted area. The provinces of Hamadan (with water abundance), and Yazd and Isfahan (with water scarcity) in Iran have been selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. Results show a higher vulnerability to droughts in the water-rich region due to dependence on water abundance as opposed to the water-poor regions, which are well adapted to water scarcity conditions.
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA), principal component analysis (PCA), and principal factor analysis (PFA) have been adopted to provide ease of understanding: interpretation of a large complex data set in the Gorganrud River monitoring networks, evaluation of the temporal and spatial variations of water quality, and finally identification of monitoring stations and parameters which are most important in assessing annual variations of water quality in the river. In accomplishing the research, 11 surface water quality data related to both of physical and chemical parameters have been collected from seven monitoring stations from 1996 to 2002. In general, our results from CCA method indicated strong relationship between physical and chemical parameters in the Gorganrud River. In addition, analyzing data through the PCA and PFA techniques revealed that all monitoring stations are important in explaining the annual variation of data set. From the point of view of the degree of importance of parameters contributing to water quality variations, further investigations by running two scenarios (rotated factor correlation coefficient value equal to 0.95 and 0.90 for the first and second scenarios, respectively) showed that the important parameters in one season may not be important for another season. For example, unlike in summer, water temperature, total suspended solids, total phosphorous, and nitrate parameters were important, electrical conductivity, and turbidity parameters had been realized as important parameters in spring through the first scenario.
Hydropolitics is defined as the systematic study of conflict and cooperation in transboundary water basins, affecting around 40% of the world’s population. There has been great advancement in studies endeavoring to explore linkages between hydropolitical drivers and hydropolitical situations in transboundary basins. To add to this, we posit that hydropolitics would benefit from a system thinking approach that has remained less addressed in the literature. For this purpose, considering a transboundary basin as a system, this study is built on the main principle of system dynamics, which implies that a system’s structure determines its behavior. Incorporating system archetypes into hydropolitics can provide a framework for assessing hydropolitical behavior according to the potential structure of archetypes. In this paper, we discuss five hydropolitical system archetypes and their feedback loop structures, the required physical environments, and potential unintended behavior over time. Finally, an example of a diagnostic checklist is presented that will help riparian states recognize patterns of behavior they may face in the future. This paper lays the groundwork for gaining insight into using system archetypes in projecting plausible hydropolitical behaviors and understanding past behaviors in transboundary basins.
This paper introduces and fleshes out a systemic method designed to develop a holistic understanding of states’ behavior in transboundary water conflict and cooperation. Such an approach leverages causality analysis to capture the deep structural characteristics that shape the hydropolitics dynamics and may lead to the evolution of destructive behaviors with severe consequences. The paper does so by using the concepts of the system archetype. The system archetype analysis offers insight into the underlying structures from which the dynamics of hydropolitics emerge over time—cycles of conflict and cooperation. The approach provides riparian states with a diagnostic tool to recognize patterns of destructive behaviors in the management of shared water resources and warning signs that are usually too long overlooked. Using four case studies from different continents, this paper shows how a systems archetype approach is useful for developing a big-picture understanding of the hydropolitical problem, its dynamics, and potential resolution pathways. The systemic lessons learned from these case studies can be used in other contexts, helping policymakers anticipate the destructive and constructive dynamics leading to conflict and cooperation.
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