SUMMARYUncertainties in structural engineering are often arising from the modeling assumptions and errors, or from variability in input loadings. A practical approach for dealing with them is to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the framework of stochastic and probabilistic methods. These analyses can be statically and dynamically performed through nonlinear static pushover and IDA techniques, respectively. Of the existing structures, concrete gravity dams are infrastructures which may encounter many uncertainties. In this research, probabilistic analysis of the seismic performance of gravity dams is presented. The main characteristics of the nonlinear tensile behavior of mass concrete, along with the intensity of earthquake excitations are considered as random variables in the probabilistic analysis. Using the tallest non-overflow monolith of the Pine Flat gravity dam as a case study, its response under static and dynamic situations is reliably examined utilizing different combinations of parameters in the material and the seismic loading. The sensitivity analysis reveals the relative importance of each parameter independently. It will be shown that the undamaged modulus of elasticity and tensile strength of mass concrete have more significant roles on the seismic resistance of the dam than the ultimate inelastic tensile strain. In order to propagate the parametric uncertainty to the actual seismic performance of the dam, probabilistic simulation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation with Latin hypercube sampling, and approximate moment estimation techniques will be used. The final results illustrate the possibility of using a mean-parameter dam model to estimate the mean seismic performance of the dam.

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In this paper, effect of uncertainty of fastening system properties on the wheel/rail dynamic force (WRDF) was investigated. For this purpose, two deterministic and epistemic models of vehicle/track interaction were developed, using the finite element method. Validity of the results obtained from the models was shown through comparison between the model results and those obtained from field tests. The effects of uncertainty of fastening system properties on the WRDF in different axle loads, vehicle speeds, rail irregularities and various track maintenance conditions were derived through probability and sensitivity analyses. Using the results obtained, some contours were developed to obtain the amplification of WRDF (due the uncertainty of fastening system properties) as a function of vehicle axle load, vehicle speed and track maintenance conditions.

This research aims to investigate the feasibility of using ambient vibration testing for system identification of an elevated water tank. To identify the natural dynamic properties, the experimental study is carried out on an elevated steel water tank located in Tehran. The tank is instrumented with a sensitive velocimeter sensor (microtremor), and the ambient velocity of the tank is recorded for 30[Formula: see text]min in three orthogonal axes. Employing the peak-picking method in the frequency domain, the fundamental frequency of the tank is determined as about 1.9[Formula: see text]Hz. Then, the numerical model of the tank is generated and calibrated based on the obtained data. In the primary modeling, the values of natural frequencies of the tank are in good agreement with the results of the ambient vibration data. This finding is judged to be reasonable considering no clear sign of corrosion in the steel material.