The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.

Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries.

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This study aims to provide descriptive epidemiology of human CCHF cases in Afghanistan by demographic, geographical, and seasonal characteristics. Methodology: This paper's findings are based on the retrospective analysis of the National Surveillance System's collected data from 2016 to 2018. Weekly cases exceeding the 90th percentile of the expected number of cases were considered to be exceptional and above normal.

Background: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) are predisposed to highly contagious, severe and fatal, emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), and re-emerging infectious diseases (RIDs). This paper reviews the epidemiological situation of EIDs and RIDs of global concern in the EMR between 2001 and 2018. Methods: To do a narrative review, a complete list of studies in the field was we prepared following a systematic search approach. Studies that were purposively reviewed were identified to summarize the epidemiological situation of each targeted disease. A comprehensive search of all published studies on EIDs and RIDs between 2001 and 2018 was carried out through search engines including Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect. Results: Leishmaniasis, hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV) are reported from all countries in the region. Chikungunya, Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), dengue fever, and H5N1 have been increasing in number, frequency, and expanding in their geographic distribution. Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which was reported in this region in 2012 is still a public health concern. There are challenges to control cholera, diphtheria, leishmaniasis, measles, and poliomyelitis in some of the countries. Moreover, Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever (AHF), and Rift Valley fever (RVF) are limited to some countries in the region. Also, there is little information about the real situation of the plague, Q fever, and tularemia. Conclusion: EIDs and RIDs are prevalent in most countries in the region and could further spread within the region. It is crucial to improve regional capacities and capabilities in preventing and responding to disease outbreaks with adequate resources and expertise.

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BackgroundMore than 500,000 people are affected by brucellosis each year while the incidence of Q fever is poorly recorded. Consistent outbreaks of brucellosis have been reported in Afghanistan, affecting social and economic life. This study aimed to determine the means of propagation of brucellosis and Q-fever and establish appropriate control measures for both.Methods and MaterialsAn outbreak of 1,317 cases of brucellosis and Q fever was investigated from May 2011 to the end of 2012 in Bamyan province of Afghanistan. A total of 100 cases were selected by random sampling with equal number of neighbor controls. Data were collected through structured questionnaire.ResultsThe average age was 30 years ±14 years. Of those sampled, 62% were female, 38% were male, and resided in three districts: Punjab, Yakawlang and Waras. Using multivariate analysis, being a housewife (OR=7.36), being within proximity of kitchens to barns (OR= 2.98), drinking un-boiled milk (OR= 5.26), butchering (OR= 3.53) and purchasing new animals in the last six months (OR= 3.53) were significantly associated with contraction of brucellosis and Q fever.ConclusionHealth educators should focus on families dealing with animals, especially on females. Pasturing, healthy milking, dunging, and slaughtering practices, along with use of safe dairy products should be the focus of preventive measures.

This paper aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics and clinical manifestations of the first 15 dengue fever cases reported in Afghanistan. Methods: A retrospective descriptive analysis of the data on confirmed dengue cases detected by the national disease surveillance system was conducted. Epidemiological, socio-demographic, clinical, laboratory and outcome data from the cases were analyzed. Results: Between May and December 2019, 62 samples were tested for DENV, among which 15 (24.2%) were positive. Seven of the cases were probable autochthonous with no travel history, the other seven cases had a travel history to dengue-endemic countries (five Pakistan, two India) and the travel history for one of the cases was not known. The 15 confirmed cases were reported from six provinces, seven cases (46.7%) were reported from Nangarhar Province, two (13%) from Paktya, and one (6.7%) from Paktika province, bordering with Pakistan, three (20%) were reported from Kabul, and one each (each 6.7%) from Faryab and Laghman provinces. All of the cases manifested fever, headache, myalgia, and arthralgia. Other clinical features were low platelet count (50%), pain behind eyes (36%), rash, and nausea/vomiting (each 21%). Conclusion: For the first time, the surveillance system detected and reported locally acquired DENV cases in Afghanistan, mostly in provinces bordering with Pakistan. Population movements between Afghanistan and Pakistan facilitate the cross-border spread of DENV between two countries.