Recent progress in developing artificial neural network (ANN) metamodels has paved the way for reliable use of these models in the prediction of air pollutant concentrations in urban atmosphere. However, improvement of prediction performance, proper selection of input parameters and model architecture, and quantification of model uncertainties remain key challenges to their practical use. This study has three main objectives: to select an ensemble of input parameters for ANN metamodels consisting of meteorological variables that are predictable by conventional weather forecast models and variables that properly describe the complex nature of pollutant source conditions in a major city, to optimize the ANN models to achieve the most accurate hourly prediction for a case study (city of Tehran), and to examine a methodology to analyze uncertainties based on ANN and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). In the current study, the ANNs were constructed to predict criteria pollutants of nitrogen oxides (NOx), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen monoxide (NO), ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) in Tehran based on the data collected at a monitoring station in the densely populated central area of the city. The best combination of input variables was comprehensively investigated taking into account the predictability of meteorological input variables and the study of model performance, correlation coefficients, and spectral analysis. Among numerous meteorological variables, wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and wind direction were chosen as input variables for the ANN models. The complex nature of pollutant source conditions was reflected through the use of hour of the day and month of the year as input variables and the development of different models for each day of the week. After that, ANN models were constructed and validated, and a methodology of computing prediction intervals (PI) and probability of exceeding air quality thresholds was developed by combining ANNs and MCSs based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The results showed that proper ANN models can be used as reliable metamodels for the prediction of hourly air pollutants in urban environments. High correlations were obtained with R (2) of more than 0.82 between modeled and observed hourly pollutant levels for CO, NOx, NO2, NO, and PM10. However, predicted O3 levels were less accurate. The combined use of ANNs and MCSs seems very promising in analyzing air pollution prediction uncertainties. Replacing deterministic predictions with probabilistic PIs can enhance the reliability of ANN models and provide a means of quantifying prediction uncertainties.

We define model-data interaction (MDI) as a two way process between models and data, in which on one hand data can serve the modeling purpose by supporting model discrimination, parameter refinement, uncertainty analysis, etc., and on the other hand models provide a tool for data fusion, interpretation, interpolation, etc. MDI has many applications in the realm of groundwater and has been the topic of extensive research in the groundwater community for the past several decades. This has led to the development of a multitude of increasingly sophisticated methods. The progress of data acquisition technologies and the evolution of models are continuously changing the landscape of groundwater MDI, creating new challenges and opportunities that must be properly understood and addressed. This paper aims to review, analyze and classify research on MDI in groundwater applications, and discusses several related aspects including: (1) basic theoretical concepts and classification of methods, (2) sources of uncertainty and how they are commonly addressed, (3) specific characteristics of groundwater models and data that affect the choice of methods, (4) how models and data can interact to provide added value in groundwater applications, (5) software and codes for MDI, and (6) key issues that will likely form future research directions. The review shows that there are many tools and techniques for groundwater MDI, and this diversity is needed to support different MDI objectives, assumptions, model and data types and computational constraints. The study identifies eight categories of applications for MDI in the groundwater literature, and highlights the growing gap between MDI practices in the research community and those in consulting, industry and government.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

This paper examines a linked simulation-optimization procedure based on the combined application of an artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) with the aim of developing an efficient model for the multiobjective management of groundwater lenses in small islands. The simulation-optimization methodology is applied to a real aquifer in Kish Island of the Persian Gulf to determine the optimal groundwater-extraction while protecting the freshwater lens from seawater intrusion. The initial simulations are based on the application of SUTRA, a variable-density groundwater numerical model. The numerical model parameters are calibrated through automated parameter estimation. To make the optimization process computationally feasible, the numerical model is subsequently replaced by a trained ANN model as an approximate simulator. Even with a moderate number of input data sets based on the numerical simulations, the ANN metamodel can be efficiently trained. The ANN model is subsequently linked with GA to identify the nondominated or Pareto-optimal solutions. To provide flexibility in the implementation of the management plan, the model is built upon optimizing extraction from a number of zones instead of point-well locations. Two issues are of particular interest to the research reported in this paper are: (1) how the general idea of minimizing seawater intrusion can be effectively represented by objective functions within the framework of the simulation-optimization paradigm, and (2) the implications of applying the methodology to a real-world small-island groundwater lens. Four different models have been compared within the framework of multiobjective optimization, including (1) minimization of maximum salinity at observation wells, (2) minimization of the root mean square (RMS) change in concentrations over the planning period, (3) minimization of the arithmetic mean, and (4) minimization of the trimmed arithmetic mean of concentration in the observation wells. The latter model can provide a more effective framework to incorporate the general objective of minimizing seawater intrusion. This paper shows that integration of the latest innovative tools can provide the ability to solve complex real-world optimization problems in an effective way.

The majority of literature regarding optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) is devoted to increasing the efficiency of these sampling strategies through the development of new algorithms based on the combination of innovative space-filling criteria and specialized optimization schemes. However, little attention has been given to the impact of the initial design that is fed into the optimization algorithm, on the efficiency of OLHS strategies. Previous studies, as well as codes developed for OLHS, have relied on one of the following two approaches for the selection of the initial design in OLHS: (1) the use of random points in the hypercube intervals (random LHS), and (2) the use of midpoints in the hypercube intervals (midpoint LHS). Both approaches have been extensively used, but no attempt has been previously made to compare the efficiency and robustness of their resulting sample designs. In this study we compare the two approaches and show that the space-filling characteristics of OLHS designs are sensitive to the initial design that is fed into the optimization algorithm. It is also illustrated that the space-filling characteristics of OLHS designs based on midpoint LHS are significantly better those based on random LHS. The two approaches are compared by incorporating their resulting sample designs in Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for uncertainty propagation analysis, and then, by employing the sample designs in the selection of the training set for constructing non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (NIPCE) meta-models which subsequently replace the original full model in MCSs. The analysis is based on two case studies involving numerical simulation of density dependent flow and solute transport in porous media within the context of seawater intrusion

No abstract