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In most developing countries, over-aged vehicles play a significant role in energy demand and air pollution, which make the transportation sector a suitable choice for investigating opportunities to mitigate climate change. Apparently, people heterogeneity, social influence, and network configuration affect diffusion of innovation. This study presents an agentbased model (ABM) to simulate the rational decision-making, psychological behavior, and social interaction of people to explore their reaction to policy scenarios toward adopting technological changes over time. The aim of model is to assist policymakers for energy and environmental policy design based on consumers' behavior. The jeepney owners in the old public utility jeepney (PUJ) fleet in Metro Manila are chosen as case study to prove the applicability of the model. The results show that rational, psychological, and social interaction of owners could not lead to diffusion of technology without intervention of policy instruments. However, by implementing incentive-based policies, the entire jeepney fleet could be renovated before the end of simulation horizon and the government could launch a 5-year plan to combat pollution of the fleet. The model could be applied to evaluate and prioritize strategies for reducing the future energy requirements and emissions in other fleets and regions.
This research is conducted to assess the present situation of energy demand and emission of air pollutants from road transportation sector in the Philippines along with the future forecasting of the environmental impacts from transportation sector. According to the published reports of the Department of Energy of the Philippines, transportation have the most energy-intensive sector amongst the sectors, which will account for the largest share in the country’s final energy demand registering an average of 34.5 percent. Hence, the past trend of energy consumption and emissions are applied in order to predict the future pattern. In addition, a model of transportation system using computer based software called “Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP)” has been developed together with the associated Environmental Database (EDB) model. The framework of calculation utilized official transportation database, fuel consumption of certain vehicle type and corresponding emission of each vehicle type. The base scenario called as Business -As- Usual (BAU) is surveyed and other different alternative scenarios are presented and discussed. The model is run under the database of 2001 as the base year and extrapolated until 2030 to predict the impact of transportation. The main objective of this study is to achieve an optimal transportation policy which contributes in decline of energy demand as well as air pollution in the Philippines.
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