Background We describe calendar time trends of patients with simple congenital heart disease. Methods and Results Using the nationwide Danish registries, we identified individuals diagnosed with isolated ventricular septal defect, atrial septal defect, patent ductus arteriosus, or pulmonary stenosis during 1977 to 2015, who were alive at 5 years of age. We reported incidence per 1 000 000 person‐years with 95% CIs, 1‐year invasive cardiac procedure probability and age at time of diagnosis stratified by diagnosis age (children ≤18 years, adults >18 years), and 1‐year all‐cause mortality stratified by diagnosis age groups (5–30, 30–60, 60+ years). We identified 15 900 individuals with simple congenital heart disease (ventricular septal defect, 35.2%; atrial septal defect, 35.0%; patent ductus arteriosus, 25.2%; pulmonary stenosis, 4.6%), of which 75.7% were children. From 1977 to 1986 and 2007 to 2015, the incidence rates increased for atrial septal defect in adults (8.8 [95% CI, 7.1–10.5] to 31.8 [95% CI, 29.2–34.5]) and in children (26.6 [95% CI, 20.9–32.3] to 150.8 [95% CI, 126.5–175.0]). An increase was only observed in children for ventricular septal defect (72.1 [95% CI, 60.3–83.9] to 115.4 [95% CI, 109.1–121.6]), patent ductus arteriosus (49.2 [95% CI, 39.8–58.5] to 102.2 [95% CI, 86.7–117.6]) and pulmonary stenosis (5.7 [95% CI, 3.0–8.3] to 21.5 [95% CI, 17.2–25.7]) while the incidence rates remained unchanged for adults. From 1977–1986 to 2007–2015, 1‐year mortality decreased for all age groups (>60 years, 30.1%–9.6%; 30–60 years, 9.5%–1.0%; 5–30 years, 1.9%–0.0%), and 1‐year procedure probability decreased for children (13.8%–6.6%) but increased for adults (13.3%–29.6%) were observed. Conclusions Increasing incidence and treatment and decreasing mortality among individuals with simple congenital heart disease point toward an aging and growing population. Broader screening methods for asymptomatic congenital heart disease are needed to initiate timely treatment and follow‐up.
Aims To derive and validate a risk prediction model with nationwide coverage to predict individual and population-level risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods and Results All 2.98 million Danish residents aged 30-85 years free of CVD were included on January 1, 2014 and followed through December 31, 2018 using nationwide administrative healthcare registries. Model predictors and outcome were pre-specified. Predictors were: Age, sex, education, use of antithrombotic, blood pressure-lowering, glucose-lowering, or lipid-lowering drugs, and a smoking proxy of smoking-cessation drug use or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Outcome was 5-year risk of first CVD event, a combination of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Predictions were computed using cause-specific Cox regression models. The final model fitted in the full data was internally-externally validated in each Danish Region. The model was well-calibrated in all Regions. Areas under the curve (AUC) and Brier scores ranged from 76.3% to 79.6% and 3.3 to 4.4. The model was superior to an age-sex benchmark model with differences in AUC and Brier scores ranging from 1.2% to 1.5% and -0.02 to -0.03. Average predicted risks in each Danish municipality ranged from 2.8% to 5.9%. Predicted risks for a 66-year-old ranged from 2.6% to 25.3%. Personalized predicted risks across ages 30-85 were presented in an online calculator (https://hjerteforeningen.shinyapps.io/cvd-risk-manuscript/). Conclusion A CVD risk prediction model based solely on nationwide administrative registry data provided accurate prediction of personal and population-level 5-year first CVD event risk in the Danish population. This may inform clinical and public health primary prevention efforts.
Aims In a continuously ageing population of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), understanding the long-term risk of morbidity is crucial. The aim of this study was to compare the lifetime risks of developing comorbidities in patients with simple CHD and matched controls. Methods and results Using the Danish nationwide registers spanning from 1977 to 2018, simple CHD cases were defined as isolated atrial septal defect (ASD), ventricular septal defect (VSD), pulmonary stenosis, or patent ductus arteriosus in patients surviving until at least 5 years of age. There were 10 controls identified per case. Reported were absolute lifetime risks and lifetime risk differences (between patients with simple CHD and controls) of incident comorbidities stratified by groups and specific cardiovascular comorbidities. Of the included 17 157 individuals with simple CHD, the largest subgroups were ASD (37.7%) and VSD (33.9%), and 52% were females. The median follow-up time for patients with CHD was 21.2 years (interquartile range: 9.4–39.0) and for controls, 19.8 years (9.0–37.0). The lifetime risks for the investigated comorbidities were higher and appeared overall at younger ages for simple CHD compared with controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. The lifetime risk difference among the comorbidity groups was highest for neurological disease (male: 15.2%, female: 11.3%), pulmonary disease (male: 9.1%, female: 11.7%), and among the specific comorbidities for stroke (male: 18.9%, female: 11.4%). The overall risk of stroke in patients with simple CHD was mainly driven by ASD (male: 28.9%, female: 17.5%), while the risks of myocardial infarction and heart failure were driven by VSD. The associated lifetime risks of stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in both sexes were smaller in invasively treated patients compared with untreated patients with simple CHD. Conclusion Patients with simple CHD had increased lifetime risks of all comorbidities compared with matched controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. These findings highlight the need for increased attention towards early management of comorbidity risk factors.
Background Influenza vaccination protects against morbidity and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to describe influenza vaccine uptake in patients with CVD in a universal-access healthcare system. Methods Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with prevalent CVD, defined as heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), or stroke during three consecutive influenza seasons (October-December, 2017-2019). The outcome was relative frequency of influenza vaccination across strata of patient characteristics. Results There was an average of 397,346 patients with CVD yearly during 2017-2019. Vaccine uptake was 45.6% for the whole population and ranged from 55.0% in AF to 61.8% in HF among patients aged ≥65 years. Among patients aged <65 years, uptake was 32.6% in HF, 19.0% in AF, 21.1% in IHD, and 18.3% in stroke. There was a lower uptake with decreasing age: 21.6% in HF, 5.5% in AF, 7.4% in IHD, and 6.3% in stroke among males aged <45 years, as opposed to 25.5% in HF, 11.5% in AF, 13.8% in IHD, and 12.1% in stroke for males aged 45-54 years. In the further stratified analyses, uptake ranged from a low of 2.5% for males <45 years with AF who were not vaccinated the previous season, to a high of 87.0% for females ≥75 years with IHD who were vaccinated the previous season. Conclusion Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake is suboptimal among patients with cardiovascular disease, even in a universal-access healthcare system with free-of-charge vaccinations. Vaccine uptake was particularly low among young patients.
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