BackgroundLifetime stroke risk has been calculated in a limited number of selected
populations. We determined lifetime risk of stroke globally and at the
regional and country level.MethodsUsing Global Burden of Disease Study estimates of stroke incidence and the
competing risks of non-stroke mortality, we estimated the cumulative
lifetime risk of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke (with
95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) for 195 countries among adults over 25
years) for the years 1990 and 2016 and according to the GBD Study
Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).ResultsThe global estimated lifetime risk of stroke from age 25 onward was 24.9%
(95% UI: 23.5–26.2): 24.7% (23.3–26.0) in men and 25.1% (23.7–26.5) in
women. The lifetime risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3% and of hemorrhagic
stroke was 8.2%. The risk of stroke was 23.5% in high SDI countries, 31.1%
in high-middle SDI countries, and 13.2% in low SDI countries with UIs not
overlapping for these categories. The greatest estimated risk of stroke was
in East Asia (38.8%) and Central and Eastern Europe (31.7 and 31.6 %%), and
lowest in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). From 1990 to 2016, there was a
relative increase of 8.9% in global lifetime risk.ConclusionsThe global lifetime risk of stroke is approximately 25% starting at age 25 in
both men and women. There is geographical variation in the lifetime risk of
stroke, with particularly high risk in East Asia, Central and Eastern
Europe.
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