Land use and land cover change (LULC) is known worldwide as a key factor of environmental modification that significantly affects natural resources. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of land use and land cover in the Matenchose watershed from the years 1991, 2003, and 2020, and future prediction of land use changes for 2050. Landsat TM for 1991, ETM+ for 2003, and Landsat-8 OLI were used for LULC classification for 2020. A supervised image sorting method exhausting a maximum likelihood classification system was used, with the application using ERDAS Imagine software. Depending on the classified LULC, the future LULC 2050 was predicted using CA-Markov and Land Change Models by considering the different drivers of LULC dynamics. The 1991 LULC data showed that the watershed was predominantly covered by grassland (35%), and the 2003 and 2020 LULC data showed that the watershed was predominantly covered by cultivated land (36% and 52%, respectively). The predicted results showed that cultivated land and settlement increased by 6.36% and 6.53%, respectively, while forestland and grassland decreased by 63.76% and 22.325, respectively, from 2020 to 2050. Conversion of other LULC categories to cultivated land was most detrimental to the increase in soil erosion, while forest and grassland were paramount in reducing soil loss. The concept that population expansion and relocation have led to an increase in agricultural land and forested areas was further reinforced by the findings of key informant interviews. This study result might help appropriate decision making and improve land use policies in land management options.

The global community recognizes land use and land cover change (LULC) as a primary cause of ecological modification that has a considerable impact on natural resources, particularly soil and water resources. The aim of this research was to investigate land use change's influences on soil erosion in the Matenchose watershed of Ethiopia in 1991, 2003, and 2020. The maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method was used in the study for supervised image analysis. Soil erosion was estimated using the geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. According to the LULC data from 1991, the watershed was mostly covered by grassland (35%), while in 2003 and 2020, it was typically enclosed by cultivated land (36%) and (52%), respectively. The watershed's mean annual soil erosion rate grew significantly from 13 t/ha in 1991 to 18 t/ha in 2003 to 21 t/ha in 2020. Based on the current soil loss rate result, the Matenchose watershed was divided into five priority groups for soil management practices. In contrast, the watershed is made up of 2052 ha (21%) of areas with high to very high erosion risk, 3304 ha (33%) of areas with moderate erosion risk, and 2866 ha (29%) of areas with severe erosion risk. Based on the average annual rate of soil erosion, several vital subwatersheds were identified for potential future land management‐related actions. Over the 29 years, the area of grassland and forest decreased while agricultural and settlement areas expanded, and they contributed to the enhanced hazards of soil erosion. Particularly vulnerable to erosion are the watershed's hilly and steeper areas. The identified subwatersheds that are most at risk of erosion should be given priority for upcoming LULC initiatives, proper participatory watershed planning and management, and measures to conserve soil and water to preserve the Matenchose watershed's soil resources.