Abstract. Global climate change is expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distribution and has already increased tree mortality, altering forest structure. However, long-term shifts will be partly dependent on the ability of species to reproduce under a novel climate. Few studies have examined the impact of climate change on the reproductive output of long-lived 'masting' species, or species characterized by episodic reproductive events. Here, we show that seed cone production among pinyon pine (Pinus edulis), a masting species, declined by 40% from the 1974 decade (1969)(1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976)(1977)(1978) to the 2008 decade (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) in revisited stands throughout New Mexico and northwestern Oklahoma. Seed cone production was highly correlated with late summer temperatures at the time of cone initiation. Further, declines in seed cone production were greatest among populations that experienced the greatest increases in growing season temperatures, which were the populations located at the cooler, upper elevations. As growing season temperatures are predicted to increase across this region over the next century, these findings suggest seed cone production may be an increasingly important bottleneck for future pinyon pine regeneration, especially in areas with greater increases in temperature. Declines in seed cone production may not only affect pinyon pine population dynamics but also the various wildlife species that rely on pinyon pine seeds. Because pinyon pine has similar reproductive strategies as other semi-arid pine species, increasing temperature may negatively influence reproductive output of other conifers. Further investigation into the full geographic and taxonomic extent of these seed declines is warranted.

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

SummaryWidespread piñon (Pinus edulis) mortality occurred across the southwestern USA during [2002][2003] in response to drought and bark beetle infestations. Given the recent mortality and changes in regional climate over the past several decades, there is a keen interest in postmortality regeneration dynamics in piñon-juniper woodlands.Here, we examined piñon and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma) recruitment at 30 sites across southwestern Colorado, USA that spanned a gradient of adult piñon mortality levels (10-100%) to understand current regeneration dynamics.Piñon and juniper recruitment was greater at sites with more tree and shrub cover. Piñon recruitment was more strongly facilitated than juniper recruitment by trees and shrubs. New (post-mortality) piñon recruitment was negatively affected by recent mortality. However, mortality had no effect on piñon advanced regeneration (juveniles established pre-mortality) and did not shift juvenile piñon dominance.Our results highlight the importance of shrubs and juniper trees for the facilitation of piñon establishment and survival. Regardless of adult piñon mortality levels, areas with low tree and shrub cover may become increasingly juniper dominated as a result of the few suitable microsites for piñon establishment and survival. In areas with high piñon mortality and high tree and shrub cover, our results suggest that piñon is regenerating via advanced regeneration.

Forest vulnerability to drought is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and drought-induced mortality and community dynamics following drought have major ecological and societal impacts. Here, we show that tree mortality concomitant with drought has led to short-term (mean 5 y, range 1 to 23 y after mortality) vegetation-type conversion in multiple biomes across the world (131 sites). Self-replacement of the dominant tree species was only prevalent in 21% of the examined cases and forests and woodlands shifted to nonwoody vegetation in 10% of them. The ultimate temporal persistence of such changes remains unknown but, given the key role of biological legacies in long-term ecological succession, this emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories highlights the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. Community changes were less pronounced under wetter postmortality conditions. Replacement was also influenced by management intensity, and postdrought shrub dominance was higher when pathogens acted as codrivers of tree mortality. Early change in community composition indicates that forests dominated by mesic species generally shifted toward more xeric communities, with replacing tree and shrub species exhibiting drier bioclimatic optima and distribution ranges. However, shifts toward more mesic communities also occurred and multiple pathways of forest replacement were observed for some species. Drought characteristics, species-specific environmental preferences, plant traits, and ecosystem legacies govern postdrought species turnover and subsequent ecological trajectories, with potential far-reaching implications for forest biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Climate warming is contributing to increases in wildfire activity throughout the western United States, leading to potentially long‐lasting shifts in vegetation. The response of forest ecosystems to wildfire is thus a crucial indicator of future vegetation trajectories, and these responses are contingent upon factors such as seed availability, interannual climate variability, average climate, and other components of the physical environment. To better understand variation in resilience to wildfire across vulnerable dry forests, we surveyed conifer seedling densities in 15 recent (1988–2010) wildfires and characterized temporal variation in seed cone production and seedling establishment. We then predicted postfire seedling densities at a 30‐m resolution within each fire perimeter using downscaled climate data, monthly water balance models, and maps of surviving forest cover. Widespread ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seed cone production occurred at least twice following each fire surveyed, and pulses of conifer seedling establishment coincided with years of above‐average moisture availability. Ponderosa pine and Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) seedling densities were higher on more mesic sites and adjacent to surviving trees, though there were also important interspecific differences, likely attributable to drought and shade tolerance. We estimated that postfire seedling densities in 42% (for ponderosa pine) and 69% (for Douglas‐fir) of the total burned area were below the lowest reported historical tree densities in these forests. Spatial models demonstrated that an absence of mature conifers (particularly in the interior of large, high‐severity patches) limited seedling densities in many areas, but 30‐yr average actual evapotranspiration and climatic water deficit limited densities on marginal sites. A better understanding of the limitations to postfire forest recovery will refine models of vegetation dynamics and will help to improve strategies of adaptation to a warming climate and shifting fire activity.