This study examines meteorological data and farmers' perception of rainfall in the Central Highlands of Kenya. Rainfall data from five meteorological stations during the period from 1947 to 1996 were analysed on an annual and a monthly basis. Daily data exist from 1957 and analyses from 1957 to 1996 were done on a daily basis. Discussions were held with 60 farmers about rainfall and its variation. Ten of these farmers were interviewed with a questionnaire about rainfall. Analysing annual precipitation and rain periods gave no clear trends over the study period. Results from analysing the growing seasons for maize, the main annual crop, and periods during which maize plants are sensitive to drought showed decreasing trends in rainfall amounts for the study period. Results from the interviews indicate that most of the farmers think rainfall has decreased over the last 40 years. Farmers'perceptions of rainfall are related to periods when the main food and annual crop require water and not to the periods scientists often analyse, i.e. annual and rain periods. More research and better advice from agricultural extension workers to farmers are necessary to enable this area to sustain itself in sufficient food production if the decreasing trends during the growing seasons and drought‐sensitive periods continue.

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Kenya's development seems trapped in a vicious circle caused by soil erosion, declining soil fertility, land fragmentation, uctuating agricultural production, widespread poverty, corruption, ethnic tension, rapid population, urban growth and a declining economy. The development challenge is to reverse the negative effects of these processes and promote sustainable development. This paper, based on multidisciplinary work discusses whether sustainable development based on agriculture is attainable in Murang'a district in Kenya's Central Highlands. Firstly, it investigates some biophysical aspects of sustainable agriculture such as land use across time, soil nutrient status and yield, cultivated crops and soil productivity by analysing aerial photographs and soil samples and conducting interviews. It suggests that the area has gone through major biophysical changes. Second, it relates the farmers' attitude to promotion of sustainable development as carried out by the National Soil and Water Conservation Programme. It suggests that farmers carry ideas of corruption, often following ethnic lines that hampers ef®cient implementation of the extension advise. Finally, it identi®es links behind rural-urban migration by estimating households' probability of generating incomes outside the farm, typically in urban areas. Opportunistic farming, manifested by temporary reduction of farming on own land to satisfy immediate income needs, is very common among farmers.More needs to be done to promote agro-based, small-scale rural industries, improve agricultural management practices, facilitate appropriate credits, enhance marketing opportunities, ensure timely crop payments, and increase participation in decision making. It is important to realize that for farmers to embrace policies which promote agriculturely-based sustainable development the policies ought to biophysically possible, socio-politically acceptable and economically feasible.

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