In this paper we use farmers' actual experiences with changes in rainfall levels and their responses to these changes to assess if patterns of fertilizer use are responsive to changes in rainfall patterns. Using plot and farm level panel data from the central Highlands of Ethiopia matched with corresponding village level rainfall data; results show that both the current year's decision to adopt and the intensity of fertilizer adoption is positively associated with higher rainfall levels experienced in the previous year. Furthermore, we find a concave relationship between previous season rainfall levels and fertilizer adoption, indicating that too much rainfall discourages adoption. Abundant rainfall in the previous year could depict relaxed liquidity constraints and increased affordability of fertilizer, which makes rainfall availability critical in severely credit constrained environments. In light of similar existing literature, the major contribution of the study is its use of plot level panel data, which permits us to investigate the importance of plot characteristics in fertilizer adoption decisions.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

M i n t e w a b B e z a b i h , M u y e y e C h a m b w e r a , a n d J e s p e r S t a g e Environment for DevelopmentThe Environment for Development (EfD) AbstractThis paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced adjustments on the performance of the Tanzanian economy, using a countrywide CGE (computable general equilibrium) model. The general equilibrium framework enables comparison of the effects of climate change to the overall growth of the economy because responsiveness to shocks is likely to depend on the macroeconomic structure of the economy. Effect of overall climate change on agricultural productivity is projected to be relatively limited until approximately 2030 and become worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, despite the projected reduction in agricultural productivity, the negative impacts can potentially be quite limited. This is because the time scales involved and the low starting point of the economy leave ample time for factor substitutability (i.e., replacing reduced land productivity with increased use of capital and labor) and increased overall productivity. This indicates that policies that give farmers opportunity to invest in autonomous climate adaptation, as well as policies that improve the overall performance of the economy, can be as important for reducing the impacts of climate change in the economy as direct government policies for climate adaptation. The study results can inform policymakers when choosing between direct climate-change adaptation policies or measures aimed at strengthening the fundamentals of the economy, as ways of insulating against external shocks.

No abstract

This paper concerns the patterns of food crop choice in a multicropping setting, in which production risk considerations and rainfall uncertainty are likely to be critical factors. The analysis employed plot level panel data from Ethiopia, combined with 30 year meteorological data corresponding to the survey villages used to construct seasonal and yearly rainfall variability. Using the single index approach, the riskiness of crop portfolio was constructed at a household level, taking into account the multicropping nature of the farming system. The combined riskiness of crops grown at a household level responded negatively to annual rainfall variability, with seasonal rainfall variability having a less consistent impact. Farmers are, therefore, more likely to select less risky crop portfolios even when intercrop interactions are taken into account.