This paper presents a new optimization approach to causal estimation. Given data that contains covariates and an outcome, which covariates are causes of the outcome, and what is the strength of the causality? In classical machine learning (ML), the goal of optimization is to maximize predictive accuracy. However, some covariates might exhibit a non-causal association to the outcome. Such spurious associations provide predictive power for classical ML, but they prevent us from causally interpreting the result. This paper proposes CoCo, an optimization algorithm that bridges the gap between pure prediction and causal inference. CoCo leverages the recently-proposed idea of environments, datasets of covariates/response where the causal relationships remain invariant but where the distribution of the covariates changes from environment to environment. Given datasets from multiple environments-and ones that exhibit sufficient heterogeneity-CoCo maximizes an objective for which the only solution is the causal solution. We describe the theoretical foundations of this approach and demonstrate its effectiveness on simulated and real datasets. Compared to classical ML and existing methods, CoCo provides more accurate estimates of the causal model.
In high-dimensional statistics, variable selection is an optimization problem aiming to recover the latent sparse pattern from all possible covariate combinations.In this paper, we transform the optimization problem from a discrete space to a continuous one via reparameterization. The new objective function is a reformulation of the exact L 0 -regularized regression problem (a.k.a. best subset selection). In the framework of stochastic gradient descent, we propose a family of unbiased and efficient gradient estimators that are used to optimize the best subset selection objective and its variational lower bound. Under this family, we identify the estimator with non-vanishing signal-to-noise ratio and uniformly minimum variance. Theoretically we study the general conditions under which the method is guaranteed to converge to the ground truth in expectation. In a wide variety of synthetic and real data sets, the proposed method outperforms existing ones based on penalized regression or best subset selection, in both sparse pattern recovery and out-of-sample prediction. Our method can find the true regression model from thousands of covariates in a couple of seconds. 1
Estimating an individual treatment effect (ITE) is essential to personalized decision making. However, existing methods for estimating the ITE often rely on unconfoundedness, an assumption that is fundamentally untestable with observed data. To this end, this paper proposes a method for sensitivity analysis of the ITE, a way to estimate a range of the ITE under unobserved confounding. The method we develop quantifies unmeasured confounding through a marginal sensitivity model [Ros02; Tan06], and then adapts the framework of conformal inference to estimate an ITE interval at a given confounding strength. In particular, we formulate this sensitivity analysis problem as one of conformal inference under distribution shift, and we extend existing methods of covariate-shifted conformal inference to this more general setting. The result is a predictive interval that has guaranteed nominal coverage of the ITE, a method that provides coverage with distribution-free and nonasymptotic guarantees. We evaluate the method on synthetic data and illustrate its application in an observational study.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.