Despite extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest cover change in small watersheds, the hydrological responses to forest change and associated mechanisms across multiple spatial scales have not been fully understood. This review thus examined about 312 watersheds worldwide to provide a generalized framework to evaluate hydrological responses to forest cover change and to identify the contribution of spatial scale, climate, forest type and hydrological regime in determining the intensity of forest change related hydrological responses in small (<1000 km 2) and large watersheds (≥1000 km 2). Key findings include: 1) the increase in annual runoff associated with forest cover loss is statistically significant at multiple spatial scales whereas the effect of forest cover gain is statistically inconsistent; 2) the sensitivity of annual runoff to forest cover change tends to attenuate as watershed size increases only in large watersheds; 3) annual runoff is more sensitive to forest cover change in water-limited watersheds than in energy-limited watersheds across all spatial scales; and 4) small mixed forest-dominated watersheds or large snow-dominated watersheds are more hydrologically resilient to forest cover change. These findings improve the understanding of hydrological response to forest cover change at different spatial scales and provide a scientific underpinning to future watershed management in the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic disturbances.

[1] Information on how large-scale forest changes affect water resources is important in China as country-wide reforestation programs are being implemented and concerns have arisen over possible water reduction. In this study, water budget analysis and statistical methods were used to assess the effects of significant forest recovery on river discharge at Guangdong Province based on 50 years of data. We used realized water yield (RWY) as a balance term between the outflows from and inflows to the province to represent the river discharge produced solely in Guangdong Province. The relationship between forest recovery and RWY was inferred after quantitatively examining other contributing variables including precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, development of impervious areas, human water consumption, and reservoir constructions. We applied time series analysis to test the statistical relationship between forest recovery and RWYs at annual, wet season, and dry season intervals. Both approaches showed that large-scale forest recovery did not cause significant water reduction over the past 50 years. This finding is contrary to the widely held perception of the trade-off relationship between carbon (reforestation) and water. There were no significant trends in precipitation or in RWY annually and in the wet season, but there was a significant increase of RWY in the dry season over the past 50 years. It is estimated that forest recovery may play a positive role in redistributing water from the wet season to the dry season and, consequently, in increasing water yield in the dry season. The implication of those research findings for future reforestation programs and water resource protection is also discussed.

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Abstract. Watershed topography plays an important role in determining the spatial heterogeneity of ecological, geomorphological, and hydrological processes. Few studies have quantified the role of topography in various flow variables. In this study, 28 watersheds with snow-dominated hydrological regimes were selected with daily flow records from 1989 to 1996. These watersheds are located in the Southern Interior of British Columbia, Canada, and range in size from 2.6 to 1780 km 2 . For each watershed, 22 topographic indices (TIs) were derived, including those commonly used in hydrology and other environmental fields. Flow variables include annual mean flow (Q mean ), Q 10 % , Q 25 % , Q 50 % , Q 75 % , Q 90 % , and annual minimum flow (Q min ), where Q x % is defined as the daily flow that occurred each year at a given percentage (x). Factor analysis (FA) was first adopted to exclude some redundant or repetitive TIs. Then, multiple linear regression models were employed to quantify the relative contributions of TIs to each flow variable in each year. Our results show that topography plays a more important role in low flows (flow magnitudes ≤ Q 75 % ) than high flows. However, the effects of TIs on different flow magnitudes are not consistent. Our analysis also determined five significant TIs: perimeter, slope length factor, surface area, openness, and terrain characterization index. These can be used to compare watersheds when low flow assessments are conducted, specifically in snow-dominated regions with the watershed size less than several thousand square kilometres.

Two large neighbouring watersheds, the Bowron (3420 km2) and Willow (2860 km2) situated in the central interior of British Columbia, Canada, were used to compare their hydrological responses to forest harvesting in snow‐dominant environment. Both watersheds had experienced significant, comparative forest harvesting level. The long‐term hydrometric and timber harvesting data (>50 years of records) were analysed using time series analysis to examine the hydrological impacts of forest harvesting. The hydrological variables including mean, peak and low flows over annual and seasonal scales (spring snowmelt, summer rain and winter base flow) were tested separately. Results showed that forest harvesting in the Willow watershed significantly increased annual and spring mean flows as well as annual and spring peak flows, whereas it caused an insignificant change on those hydrological variables in the Bowron watershed. The contrasted differences in hydrological responses are due to the differences in topography, spatial heterogeneity, forest harvesting characteristics and climate between two watersheds. The relative uniform topography and climate in the Willow watershed may promote hydrological synchronization effects, whereas larger variation in elevations, together with forest harvesting that occurred at lower elevations, may cause hydrological de‐synchronization effect in the Bowron watershed. The contrasted results demonstrate that the effects of forest harvesting on hydrology in large watersheds are likely watershed specific, and any attempt to generalize hydrological responses to forest harvesting must be carried out with caution. A landscape ecological perspective is critically needed for future forest hydrology studies, particularly for large watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract:Extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest change have been published for centuries, yet partitioning the hydrological effects of forest change, climate variability and other factors in a large watershed remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a single watershed approach combining the modified double mass curve (MDMC) and the time series multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMAX) to separate the impact of forest change, climate variability and other factors on dry season runoff variation in two large watersheds in China. The Zagunao watershed was examined for the deforestation effect, while the Meijiang watershed was examined to study the hydrological impact of reforestation. The key findings are: (1) both deforestation and reforestation led to significant reductions in dry season runoff, while climate variability yielded positive effects in the studied watersheds; (2) the hydrological response to forest change varied over time due to changes in soil infiltration and evapotranspiration after vegetation regeneration; (3) changes of subalpine natural forests produced greater impact on dry season runoff than alteration of planted forests. These findings are beneficial to water resource and forest management under climate change and highlight a better planning of forest operations and management incorporated trade-off between carbon and water in different forests.

Forest disturbance thresholds, defined as those at or above which significant hydrological impacts are caused, are important guides to support forest and watershed management decisions for protecting hydrological functions and minimizing negative environmental impacts. Our literature review suggests that despite their significance, the research on this topic is surprisingly limited (<20 publications), where the paired watershed experiments (PWEs) primarily designed for detecting hydrological responses to forest cover change at the small watersheds were used to derive the thresholds. However, the widely used thresholds (e.g., 20%) based on the PWEs were identified from visual interpretation rather than determined from hydrological response curves, suffering from methodological shortcomings, and thus, may lack reliability. To advance this topic, we provided a robust technique (the modified double mass curve, MDMC) for quantitatively determining forest disturbance thresholds on annual mean flow as it allows the development of a hydrological response curve between cumulative hydrological effects and forest disturbance over time at the watershed scale. We applied this robust technique in eight large watersheds in British Columbia, Canada, and found that the forest disturbance thresholds ranged from 12 to 25%. We highly recommend that the widely used forest disturbance thresholds must be reexamined, and more studies are needed with rigorous methods and in consideration of other hydrological variables in forested watersheds.

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