Policymaking for science, technology, and innovation (R&D) is stepping into a new era in the twenty-first century within a highly integrated production network, making it more challenging to capture the impact of R&D investment from an evidence-based approach. To unfold the paradox of the R&D spillover effect spared in the global supply chain, we use computable general equilibrium model with the GTAP database v10 to analyze the impact of Japan's public R&D investment to the world focus on key sectors of global supply chain, namely chemical and pharmaceutical, electronic equipment, machinery, and transportation equipment to examine its output, external trades, and welfare. The productivity parameters triggered by public R&D investment are calibrated from the SciREX Policymaking Intelligent Assistance System-Economic Simulator (SPIAS-e). The simulation results show significant increase in Japan's output and export for chemical and pharmaceutical, electronic equipment, and transportation equipment. The GDP growth was stimulated by 0.6% and substantial welfare improvement by USD 78,000 million, while other countries such as Malaysia and Taiwan by 0.4-0.6%. In contrast, the economic indicators of China reveal a negative impact, implying a structural change in the composition of the production network. It is notable to see a higher economic integration of Oceania within the region through its vibrant production and trades. The study provides comprehensive global analysis on production networks and insights for evaluating the R&D investment spillover effects.
Climate change and global warming have significantly threatened food security and the global supply chain. As the trade volume of bulk commodity grains has been growing steadily, ensuring quality while minimizing losses during long-distance shipping between warm and cold seawater has become a critical issue. An evidence-based approach to provide quantified implications is needed to illustrate a roadmap toward a net-zero-carbon society. This study applied the GTAP-E-Power model to examine the economic and welfare impacts of eco-friendly cooling system implementation on sea transportation in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. By creating scenarios of Japan’s technology change calibrated from SPIAS-e and capital-use subsidy on sectors of electronics, solar power, and sea transportation as cooling system implementation, the simulation results showed a GDP growth of 0.09% in Japan and 0.11% in Australia and New Zealand. Moreover, Japan's welfare could improve by USD 4,219 million, while greenhouse gas emissions might be reduced to 8.4 million tons, equivalent to 0.9% of the total emission of Japan’s sea transportation sector.
With its portable, storable, and zero-emission features, hydrogen energy is regarded as one of the most promising alternative energies for the next generation. Along with developing hydrogen technology applications, Japan's pilot experiments have demonstrated the feasibility of a hydrogen society. However, empirical studies are still scarce and limited to energy efficiency analysis or cost-benefit analysis, and lack inclusive discussion contributing to the evidence-based approach targeting policy implementation of the hydrogen roadmap. The research aims to provide a quantitative impact assessment of Japan's hydrogen society by applying the GTAP-E-Power model with the technology foresight parameters of 2025-2035 sourced from the SciREX Policy Intelligence Assistance System -Economic Simulator (SPIAS-e) to investigate the change in output, price, and defragmentation of supply chains of energy sectors, as well as the emission of carbon dioxide from domestic and foreign firms. In the scenario of transitioning the existing fossil power of coal, natural gas, crude oil, and other renewable energies including solar and wind power, the simulation results demonstrated that the CO2 emission by domestic firms in the transportation and service sectors could be reduced by 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, for power generation sectors, a total equivalent to 26.6 million tons thanks to the improvement in energy efficiency. In comparison, the export of transport equipment and energy-intensive sectors increased by 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Moreover, the welfare analysis of equivalent variations of Japan's hydrogen society showed an increase of $75,696 million and a 1.3% growth in GDP.
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