The purpose of this paper applied the structure time series model to forecast the consumption of professional baseball in Taiwan by using yearly data from 1990 to 2010. The primary advantage of this model is not only taking into account trends, seasonal factors and cycle effect but also that reflects the realistic situation of the consumption of professional baseball, therefore, to bring about more accurate short-term forecasting. Based on estimated results, it was amazing for us that game attendance didn't be affected by GDP. And the impact of game-fixing scandal occurred in 1997 is harmful to game attendance, so the Chinese professional baseball league faced a subsequent attendance slump. Furthermore, in accordance with the model forecasting results, a directional path was precise forecast from 2009 to 2010 period belonging to in-sample forecast. Finally, we gain out-of-sample forecasts that attendance is increasing directionally in the future five years. This important information can provide investors and owners with the best investment choice in the future.
The purpose of this paper is to apply the structure time series model to forecast the REITs' returns in US by using monthly data from January 1994 to November 2009. The primary advantage of this model is not only taking into account trends, seasonal factors and cycle effect but also that reflects the realistic situation of REITs, therefore, to bring about more accurate short term forecasting. Empirical results indicate that cycle is much more explainable to the returns of industrial REIT and manufactured home REIT because industrial REIT and manufactured home REIT are lower and stable returns than other REITs. And the impact of shock occurred in September 2008, the industrial REIT and manufactured home REIT's returns are slowly decreasing but stable. Furthermore, in accordance with the model forecasting results, a directional path was precise forecast from March 2009 to November 2009 period belonging to in-sample forecast. And we also obtain out-of-sample industrial REIT and manufactured home REIT's returns in 2010, they are decreasing gradually but stable and low risk relatively. This important information can provide investors with the best investment choice when investors are in the face of economic shock.
On June 23, 2016 the Brexit event that tremendously surprised and shocked investors around the world was considered the largest black swan with a political earthquake in 2016, and even spread to the international financial market and real estate market. This study uses the heteroscedasticity biases based on correlation coefficients by Forbes and Rigobon and the GJR-GARCH model to examine the contagion effects of the Brexit event on global REITs markets. The data are collected at the daily interval covering the time period from June 23, 2015 to December 30, 2016. Evidence reveals that no REITs markets suffered from Brexit, suggesting no transmission of Brexit across REITs markets, even the neighbouring markets, is found.
Objectives: In Ukraine the healthcare (HC) expenditure was 6.727 USD according to World Bank data (2016). The pharmaceutical spending is screwed towards basic generics with no evidence. Only 12% of pharmaceuticals are covered by budget in Ukraine vs w74% in benchmarking EU countries and the highest share of generics in spending structure. The aim was to analyze available instruments for access to innovations to show potential tools and EU best practice for optimizing HC in Ukraine. Methods: Statistical observation method. Review existing healthcare systems in EU reference countries and comparing with current state of HC in Ukraine. Results: Ukraine has GDP per capita 9,69 USD, it's 5 times lower than in Latviab Poland (31,7USD & 33,9 USD), 8-9 times than in Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary (38,7USD, 36,5USD, 33,9USD, respectively). Share of state-funded medicines is 3.6% of GDP, vs 4.5% average in Eastern Europe countries. The rate of generics in HC structure was in Czech Republic 24%, Hungary 23%, Czech Republic 27%, Poland 37%, Slovakia 34% in comparison with Ukraine 75%. Despite of hurdles Ukraine has managed implemented HTA, the law regarding Managed Entry Agreements is under consideration in Parliament of Ukraine. Budgeting of HC is increasing up to 10% each year and expectantly budget for 2020 will be increased up to 30% in comparison with 2019. One more initiative of Parliament is implementation the Law on the State Financial Guarantees of Healthcare. During 2019 MoH has implemented the HTA approaches for budget procurement, but accessibility for innovations is insufficient. Conclusions: The implementation of Risk sharing agreements will allow to increase access to innovative therapies. Recommended instruments such as HTA submissions for innovation and budget procurement, pharmacoeconomic data, special budget for innovative drugs, price referencing will help to address current gaps in Ukraine HC and increase access to innovative.
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