We present an assessment of the marginal climate impacts of new aviation activities. We use impulse response functions derived from carbon-cycle and atmospheric models to estimate changes in surface temperature for various aviation impacts (CO 2 , NO x on methane, NO x on ozone, sulfates, soot, and contrails/induced cirrus). We use different damage functions and discount rates to explore health, welfare and ecological costs for a range of assumptions and scenarios. Since uncertainty is high regarding many aviation effects, we explicitly capture some uncertainty by representing several model parameters as probabilistic distributions. The uncertainties are then propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to derive estimates for the impact of these uncertainties on the marginal future climate impacts. Our goal is to provide a framework that will communicate the potential impacts of aviation on climate change under different scenarios and assumptions, and that will allow decision-makers to compare these potential impacts to other aviation environmental impacts. We present results to describe the influence of parametric uncertainties, scenarios, and assumptions for valuation on the expected marginal future costs of aviation impacts. Estimates of the change in global average surface temperature due to aviation are most sensitive to changes in climate sensitivity, the radiative forcing attributed to short-lived effects (in particular those related to contrails and aviation-induced cirrus), and the choice of emissions scenario. Estimates of marginal future costs of aviation are most sensitive to assumptions regarding the discount rate, followed by assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, and the choice of emissions scenario. ZusammenfassungEs werden die Auswirkungen durch neue Luftfahrtaktivitäten auf das Klima präsentiert und bewertet. Hierbei wird von Impuls-Reaktions-Funktionen (impulse response functions) aus Kohlenstoff-Zyklen und atmosphärischen Modellen zur Schätzung der Veränderungen in der Oberflächentemperatur für die verschiedenen Auswirkungen der Luftfahrt (CO 2 , NO x auf Methan, NO x auf Ozon, Sulfate, Ruß, Kondensstreifen von/-induzierter Zirrus) Gebrauch gemacht. Für eine Reihe von Annahmen und Szenarien werden die Kosten für Gesundheit, Wohlfahrt und Ökologie mittels Schadensfunktionen und Abschlagsätzen analysiert. Zur Abbildung der Unsicherheit der Effekte in der Luftfahrt wurden mehrere Parameter als Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung modelliert. Durch Monte-Carlo-Analyse werden die Auswirkungen auf das zukünftige Klima geschätzt. Ziel ist es einen Rahmen zu schaffen, der potenzielle Auswirkungen einzelner Entscheidungen in der Luftfahrt auf den Klimawandel aufzeigt. Eine konkrete Unterstützung von Entscheidungsträgern durch Szenarien ist angestrebt. Es werden Ergebnisse präsentiert, die den Einfluss der parametrischen Unsicherheiten, Szenarien und Annahmen beschreiben sowie die Bewertungsgrundlage der zukünftig erwarteten marginalen Kosten der Luftverkehrseinwirkung bilden. Schätzungen über die Änderungen der...
A kinetic microphysical modeling approach that describes the formation of volatile aerosols in the presence of organic emissions in near field aircraft emitted plumes at ground level is presented. Our model suggests that self nucleation of organic species, binary nucleation of water-soluble organic vapors with water, and multicomponent nucleation of water-soluble organic vapors with sulfuric acid and water all have very slow nucleation rates. The formation of new homogeneous particles in near field aircraft plumes is thus considered to be driven by binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water. Volatile organic vapors emitted from aircraft engines primarily contribute to the nucleation process by condensing on existing homogeneous aerosols and only affect the size and the composition (not the number) of the homogeneous aerosols. Our model also shows that under low ambient relative humidity levels or high ambient temperatures, nucleation mode particles are more organic-rich than soot coatings. Organic mass fraction of nucleation mode particles is more sensitive to organic emissions levels compared to that of soot coatings. Ambient temperature and relative humidity were also predicted to affect the nucleation of sulfuric acid-water cores, where higher ambient relative humidity level and lower ambient temperature strongly favor binary sulfuric acid-water nucleation. The effect of ambient conditions on organic fractions was predicted to be relatively insignificant.
The development of a detailed microphysical model that describes the complex multicomponent interactions between organic vapors and soot particles emitted from aircraft gas turbine engines is presented. Our model formulation includes both soot surface activation by organic vapors and organic vapor condensation on the activated part of the soot surfaces. To enable this formulation, approaches to estimate chemical and physical properties of aerosols containing complex mixtures of sulfuric acid, water, and organic molecules were developed. Relevant distributions of a list of organic surrogates at the engine exit plane were used to represent complex organic emissions from aircraft engines. A parametric study was performed using this new formulation to understand the effects of ambient conditions, organic emissions levels, and mass accommodation coefficient values on the evolution of near field volatile particulate matter emissions from aircraft engines at ground level.
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