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Background Temperature, as one of the effective environmental stimuli in many aspects of species life and ecosystems, can affect amphibians in many ways. Knowing and predicting temperature change and its possible effects on the habitat suitability and movements of amphibians have led many researchers to use climate change scenarios and species distribution models (SDMs). One of the important remote-sensing products that received less attention of conservation biologists is the land surface temperature (LST). Due to the small difference between LST and air temperature, this component can be used to investigate and monitor the daily and seasonal changes of habitats. This study aims to investigate the seasonal trend of LST in the habitat suitability and connectivity of the critically endangered newt (Neurergus derjugini) in its small distribution range, using the MODIS LST time series (2003 to 2021) and with the help of SDMs, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Pettitt non-parametric tests. Results In the last decade, the increasing trend of LST versus its decreasing trends is obvious. Based on MK and Pettitt tests, in the winter and spring, with the decrease in latitude of 35.45° and increase in longitude of 46.14°, the core populations which are located in the southeast have experienced an increase in temperature. Considering the period time of breeding and overwintering, the continuity of winter and spring can be effective on the survival of adult newts as well as larvae in the microclimate. Linkages with the highest current flow between core populations in the winter and summer are the most likely to be vulnerable. At the level of habitat, the increase in LST is proportional to the trend of thermal landscape changes, and all seasons have had an increase in LST, but in winter and summer, the largest area of the habitat has been involved. By continuing the current trend, many high-altitude southern habitats in Iran will be endangered, and the species will be at risk of local extinction. Conclusion The increasing trend of temperature in all seasons such as winter will affect many adaptations of the species and these effects are mostly evident in the southern parts of its distribution range therefore, captive breeding and reintroduction are recommended for the populations of these areas.

The evolutionary characteristics of amphibians, especially those more water-dependent, have faced the study of habitat connectivity the challenge of Movement Context (MC), a context for which water and moisture are an integral part. This fine-scale study was conducted to evaluate the distribution of N. derjugini and identify potential displacement paths between the population cores, using the physical elements of the landscape playing an MC role. The distribution modeling was performed by MaxEnt and the inverse of the habitat suitability map was used as the cost map. The connection of population cores was modeled by the Linkage Mapper toolbox. The MC of the population cores was set in the drainage basins regarding the slope position and landform classes. Three scenarios were considered. In Scenario 1, drainage basins, in Scenario 2, the valleys, and in Scenario 3, canyons, shallow valleys, headwaters, and u-shaped valleys were considered MCs. According to the results, slope and altitude variability had the highest effect on the distribution of N. derjugini. The results showed that the proxy did not work well in Scenario 1. Compared to Scenario 2, the connection paths of Scenario 3 were more compatible with the ecological and biological characteristics of the species. fine-scale modeling could lead to reliable results for the displacement of MC-dependent species. The connectivity of the physical structure of landscapes plays a critical role in the connectivity of population cores. Proper distribution of population cores adjacent to each other in valleys and waterways can be considered a successful step in communication.