Research Question: The objective of this particular piece of research was to evaluate the condition of the real estate market in the period preceding the pandemic outbreak. Motivation: Our goal was to determine whether real estate has been overpriced, i.e., whether and when speculative bubbles began to form and whether there were indications of their bursting. This paper brings together the need for discussing theories that can potentially explain the real estate market bubbles and boom-bust cycles (Gleaser &Nathanson, 2014) and the new approach which proved promising to detect the exuberance of economic and financial activities (Phillips, Shi &Yu, 2015). Potential collapse of real estate prices would have devastating effects and would likely cause a collapse of the financial system. Idea: The core idea of this paper was to evaluate whether speculative bubbles could be detected in the real estate market over the period immediately before the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus pandemic, and whether the pandemic or the financial crisis arising from it led to bursting of bubbles in this market and consequently brought their economies into even deeper crises. Data: Quarterly price movements were analyzed in the real estate market in six countries: Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia in the period Q1 1980 - Q4 2019 for Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Q1 2002 - Q4 2019 for Serbia and Croatia and Q1 2007 - Q4 2019 for Slovenia. Tools: Empirical analysis has been performed by utilizing generalized sub-augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test of unit roots for the detection and data stamping of bubbles in the real estate market in time series at hand. Findings: In conclusion, grand European shutdown and COVID pandemic apparently did not prick multiplicity of previously formed real estate bubbles, at least not for the time being. Moreover, in several developing countries with stunted financial markets, the virus may have somewhat paradoxically solidified real estate prices and even sustained a build-up of rational real estate bubbles. Contribution: This paper expands previous research on real estate bubbles and provides new insights into the initial consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Reduction of passenger cars fuel consumption and associated emissions are two major goals of sustainable transport over the last years. Passenger car fuel consumption is directly related to a number of technological aspects of a given car, driver behaviour, road and weather conditions and, especially at urban level, road structure and traffic flow and conditions. In this paper, passenger car fuel consumption was assumed to be a function of three input variables, i.e. day of week, hour of day and city zone. Over the period of 6 months (during 2015) a car was driven in the randomly chosen routes in the city of Niš (Serbia) in the period from 8 to 23 h. The fuel consumption data recorded through on-board diagnostics equipment were used for the development of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. In order to efficiently deal with a number of ANN design issues, to avoid usual trial and error procedure and develop robust, high performance ANN models, the Taguchi method was applied. For experimentation with ANN design parameters (transfer function, the number of neurons in the first hidden layer, the number of neurons in the second hidden layer, training algorithm), the standard L18 orthogonal array with two replications was selected. Statistical results indicate the dominant influence of the training algorithm, followed by the ANN topology, i.e. interaction of the number of neurons in hidden layers, on the ANN models performance. It has been observed that 3-8-8-1 ANN model represents an optimal model for prediction of passenger car fuel consumption. This model has logistic sigmoid transfer functions in hidden layers trained with scaled conjugate gradient algorithm. By using the Taguchi optimized ANN models, analysis of passenger car fuel consumption has been discussed based on traffic conditions, i.e. different days of the week and hours of the day, for each city zone and separately for summer and winter periods.
Miloš Roganović, 1 master ekonomista Visoka škola za poslovnu ekonomiju i preduzetništvo, Beograd Doc. dr Jovanka Popović, 2 Fakultet za menadžment, Sremski Karlovci Doc. dr Milan Gavrilović, 3 Visoka škola za poslovnu ekonomiju i preduzetništvo, Beograd EKSPANZIJA PROTEKCIONISTIČKIH MERA KAO POSLEDICA SVETSKE EKONOMSKE KRIZE SAŽETAK: Svesni smo toga da je globalno širenje krize dovelo do povećanja protekcionističkih tendencija u pojedinim zemljama, koje zaštitom domaće industrije žele da podstaknu kako rast tako i sam oporavak produbljen brojnim poteškoćama. U želji da se protekcionističkim merama smanji rizik, svesno se uništava konkurencija i trgovina, a kriza sve više produbljuje. Cilj rada usmeren je na sintezu teorijskih i empirijskih činjenica, sa zadatkom identifikacije odgovora na sledeća pitanja: Da li protekcionističke mere predstavljaju realnu opasnost po trgovinu Evropske unije; Kakav je uticaj restriktivnih mera na međunarodne trgovinske tokove i Da li postoji razlika u merama koje sprovode razvijene ekonomije i ekonomije u razvoju? Predmet rada baziran je na analizi, putem deskriptivne i komparativne metode. Obuhvata potencijalno restriktivne trgovinske mere uvedene u 31 zemlji partnera Evropske unije u periodu od oktobra 2008. do kraja 2015. godine. Dobijeni rezultati ukazuju da ne postoji rizik radikalnog zaokreta ka 1 mroganovic.12@gmail.com 2 jobajcetic@gmail.com 3 sagatagm@gmail.com 31 protekcionizmu, ali ipak postoji osnovana sumnja da će ostati trajne posledice na trgovinske tokove EU i posle krize.Ključne reči: protekcionizam, spoljna trgovina, restriktivne mere, ekonomska kriza, Evropska unija. UVODZa protekcionizam se može reći da je motivisan zaštitom domaće proizvodnje od inostrane konkurencije, što sa sobom nosi usmerenja na povećanje blagostanja, stabilnosti i životnog standarda. Kako bi se ostvarili ciljevi, često se sprovode mere koje utiču na međunarodnu trgovinu (Fry i dr., 1998, str. 194). Sama problematika protekcionizma, kao fenomena spoljno trgovinske politike, bila je aktuelna u XIX veku, dok je dilema, "protekcionizam ili slobodna trgovina" prevaziđena još početkom XX veka. U ovoj trci, slobodna trgovina ostvarila je premoć.Razvijene zemlje koje se zalažu za slobodnu trgovinu, praktikuju određene mere protekcionizma i tako, nažalost, nanose ozbiljne poremećaje svetskoj trgovini. Iako je politika protekcionističke spoljno trgovinske politike izgubila duel sa teorijom slobodne spoljne trgovine, u praktičnoj politici, protekcionizam, nije poražen. (Acin, 1978, str. 3). Velike kompanije, ma koliko se zalagale za slobodno tržište, u kriznim situacijama, pokušavaju da izvrše pritisak na državu i na taj način dobiju adekvatnu zaštitu. Zato pojedine zemlje, iz sličnih razloga, međunarodni sporazum koji reguliše pitanja slobodne trgovine stavljaju u drugi plan, u odnosu na interese nacionalne ekonomije. Moćne države, koje predstavljaju stub postojećeg međunarodnog sistema, ponašaju se slično samo što, iz razumljivih razloga, svoj protekcionizam prikrivaju ideološkim zalaganjem za ...
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