The use of computational models in drug development has grown during the past decade. These model‐informed drug development (MIDD) approaches can inform a variety of drug development and regulatory decisions. When used for regulatory decision making, it is important to establish that the model is credible for its intended use. Currently, there is no consensus on how to establish and assess model credibility, including the selection of appropriate verification and validation activities. In this article, we apply a risk‐informed credibility assessment framework to physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic modeling and simulation and hypothesize this evidentiary framework may also be useful for evaluating other MIDD approaches. We seek to stimulate a scientific discussion around this framework as a potential starting point for uniform assessment of model credibility across MIDD. Ultimately, an overarching framework may help to standardize regulatory evaluation across therapeutic products (i.e., drugs and medical devices).

The objective of this study was to compare the predictive performance of an allometric model with that of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict clearance or area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) of drugs in subjects from neonates to adolescents. From the literature, 10 studies were identified in which clearance or AUC of drugs from neonates to adolescents was predicted by PBPK models. In these published studies, drugs were given to children either by intravenous or oral route. The allometric model was an age-dependent exponent (ADE) model for the prediction of clearance across the age groups. The predicted clearance or AUC values from the PBPK and ADE models were compared with the experimental values. The acceptable prediction error was the percentage of subjects within an 0.5- to 2-fold or 0.5- to 1.5-fold prediction error. There were 73 drugs with a total of 372 observations. From PBPK and allometric models, 91.1% and 90.6% of observations were within 0.5- to 2-fold prediction error, respectively. For children ≤2 years old (n = 130), PBPK and allometric models had 89% and 87% of observations within the 0.5- to 2-fold prediction error, respectively. This study indicates that the predictive power of PBPK and allometric models was essentially similar for the prediction of clearance or AUC in pediatric subjects ranging from neonates to adolescents.

Model-informed drug development (MIDD) is a powerful approach to support drug development and regulatory review. There is a rich history of MIDD applications at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). MIDD applications span across the life cycle of the development of new drugs, generics, and biologic products. In new drug development, MIDD approaches are often applied to inform clinical trial design including dose selection/optimization, aid in the evaluation of critical regulatory review questions such as evidence of effectiveness, and development of policy. In the biopharmaceutics space, we see a trend for increasing role of computational modeling to inform formulation development and help strategize future in vivo studies or lifecycle plans in the post approval setting. As more information and knowledge becomes available pre-approval, quantitative mathematical models are becoming indispensable in supporting generic drug development and approval including complex generic drug products and are expected to help reduce overall time and cost. While the application of MIDD to inform the development of cell and gene therapy products is at an early stage, the potential for future application of MIDD include understanding and quantitative evaluation of information related to biological activity/pharmacodynamics, cell expansion/ persistence, transgene expression, immune response, safety, and efficacy. With exciting innovations on the horizon, broader adoption of MIDD is poised to revolutionize drug development for greater patient and societal benefit. KEY WORDS biopharmaceutics • generic drugs • gene therapy • model-informed drug development • new drugs * Rajanikanth Madabushi