In this paper, we assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the bankruptcy risk of a sample of 100 hotel companies and, consequently, on the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia. The assessment applies to the period, 2019–2026, with the use of the data on the financial indicators for 2015–2020. Five novel structural time-series models, which have the indicators derived from Altman’s EM Z”-score model as predictors, were used, and a new conceptual framework for assessing bankruptcy risk is provided. The framework expands the applicability of credit-risk-scoring models to multiyear predictions, and it takes into account the dynamism of the transitions of the firms among Altman’s risk zones. The predictions that were obtained when the Springate and Zmijewski scores were applied along with the Altman Z”-scores demonstrate the fair applicability of the scores for the models that are introduced here. The results of the models were confirmed by 270 artificial neural networks and they were compared to the results of the classical time-series models. The crisis started to have a negative effect on bankruptcy risk in 2020, and this effect is expected to rise until 2023; currently, in 2022, the highest number of hotel companies may be headed for bankruptcy. Amelioration in the position of the companies cannot be expected before 2024; however, even in 2026, the risk of bankruptcy will remain high when compared to the pre-COVID-19 period and, thus, the surviving companies will become more fragile to any further exogenous changes. These results provide a basis for the adaption of state-supported measures and business policies in order to withstand the crisis and to ensure sustainability.
Scholars have emphasised the importance of green settings in today’s business paradigms. Studies on green behaviour have produced a plethora of noteworthy discoveries, whether focused on financial success, individual capabilities, or development. However, despite significant growth in interest in green business practices, the relationship between individuals’ willingness and green competencies has received little attention. This article used the customised green competencies conceptual model to investigate how green skills influence organisational performance and their relationship with the willingness moment. This article developed an innovative human resource management approach to address these difficulties. A questionnaire was used to perform empirical statistical research with 516 respondents from Serbian universities. Different mathematical and statistical methodologies were used to analyse the results. The findings corroborate the suggested theoretical model, and they suggest that green competencies will influence people’s willingness to participate in green activities. This article gives new information on human behaviour and organisational effectiveness in a green atmosphere. It includes managerial and practical consequences and recommendations for businesses looking to improve their social responsibility and environmental sustainability.
Pharmacy institutions are one of the key elements in modern healthcare systems throughout the world. Pharmacies can be a part of the public healthcare system at primary, or secondary and tertiary levels. Also, pharmacies can be founded as a private institution, having the same roles and amount of responsibility compared to public ones. The aim of this paper was to examine the role of pharmacies in emergency and catastrophic events. The crucial role of pharmacies is especially emphasized in emergency and catastrophic events when the majority of other healthcare institutions are mobilized in providing more important healthcare activities and services. In those instances, pharmacies represent a primary connection between the patients and community in general and the healthcare system. Proper fulfillment of necessary requirements for registration of pharmacy institutions is essential for its successful operation, but continuous education of pharmacy staff plays an equally important role. The most recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, are one additional evidence confirming that pharmacy institutions are an irreplaceable link in the healthcare system chain continuously serving as a first-line connection with all individuals in a community.
In this paper we demonstrate a new conceptual framework in the application of multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks (ANNs) to bankruptcy risk prediction using different time-delay neural network (TDNN) models to assess Altman’s EM Z“-score risk zones of firms for a sample of 100 companies operating in the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia. Hence, the accuracies of 9580 forecasting ANNs trained for the period 2016 to 2021 are analyzed, and the impact of various input parameters of different ANN models on their forecasting accuracy is investigated, including Altman’s bankruptcy risk indicators, market and internal nonfinancial indicators, the lengths of the learning periods of the ANNs and of their input parameters, and the K-means clusters of risk zones. Based on this research, 11 stability indicators (SIs) for the years under analysis are formulated, which represent the generalization capabilities of ANN models, i.e., differences in the generalization errors between the preceding period and the year for which zone assessment is given; these are seen as a consequence of structural changes at the industry level that occurred during the relevant year. SIs are validated through comparison with the relative strength index (RSI) for descriptive indicators of Altman’s model, and high correlation is found. Special focus is placed on the identification of the stability in 2020 in order to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis during that year. It is established that despite the fact that the development of bankruptcy risk in the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia is a highly volatile process, the largest changes in the analyzed period occurred in 2020, i.e., the potential applications of ANNs for forecasting zones in 2020 are limited.
Adequate financial management is of great importance to the health care system. In the contemporary state of affairs, health care is facing numerous limitations due to drastic costs and growing pressures to provide quality health care. In such appalling conditions, the managers of health organizations must build skills and knowledge that go beyond the comfort zone of their clinical competencies. It is necessary to develop their leadership skills. Bearing in mind the importance of financial competencies, the general aim of this paper is to determine the competencies of the managers of Serbian health institutions (private and public sector) in this area. Insufficient attention has been given to how health care organizations’ financial literacy affects their sustainability. For the purpose of this prospective research, a questionnaire was created that surveyed the managers of various health care institutions. The results of this study indicated that managers of health organizations have a relatively modest level of financial knowledge. However, they participate in financial activities to a large extent. This gap between the function they perform and the knowledge they have can potentially harm the well-being of the health care organizations they lead. Managers of organizations in the public sector showed a more active role in the development of business plans and more frequent independent decision making, while managers of organizations in the private sector gave more importance to financial control, negotiation, and internal financial reporting, for the improvement of the management process.
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