During their formation and early evolution, rocky planets undergo multiple global melting events due to accretionary collisions with other protoplanets. The detection and characterization of their post-collision afterglows (magma oceans) can yield important clues about the origin and evolution of the solar and extrasolar planet population. Here, we quantitatively assess the observational prospects to detect the radiative signature of forming planets covered by such collision-induced magma oceans in nearby young stellar associations with future direct imaging facilities. We have compared performance estimates for near-and mid-infrared instruments to be installed at ESO's Extremely Large Telescope (ELT), and a potential space-based mission called Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE). We modelled the frequency and timing of energetic collisions using N-body models of planet formation for different stellar types, and determine the cooling of the resulting magma oceans with an insulating atmosphere. We find that the probability of detecting at least one magma ocean planet depends on the observing duration and the distribution of atmospheric properties among rocky protoplanets. However, the prospects for detection significantly increase for young and close stellar targets, which show the highest frequencies of giant impacts. For intensive reconnaissance with a K band (2.2 µm) ELT filter or a 5.6 µm LIFE filter, the β Pictoris, Columba, TW Hydrae, and Tucana-Horologium associations represent promising candidates for detecting a molten protoplanet. Our results motivate the exploration of magma ocean planets using the ELT and underline the importance of space-based direct imaging facilities to investigate and characterize planet formation and evolution in the solar vicinity. Direct imaging of magma oceans will advance our understanding of the early interior, surface and atmospheric properties of terrestrial worlds.
In the late stages of terrestrial planet formation, pairwise collisions between planetary-sized bodies act as the fundamental agent of planet growth. These collisions can lead to either growth or disruption of the bodies involved and are largely responsible for shaping the final characteristics of the planets. Despite their critical role in planet formation, an accurate treatment of collisions has yet to be realized. While semi-analytic methods have been proposed, they remain limited to a narrow set of post-impact properties and have only achieved relatively low accuracies. However, the rise of machine learning and access to increased computing power have enabled novel data-driven approaches. In this work, we show that data-driven emulation techniques are capable of classifying and predicting the outcome of collisions with high accuracy and are generalizable to any quantifiable post-impact quantity. In particular, we focus on the dataset requirements, training pipeline, and classification and regression performance for four distinct data-driven techniques from machine learning (ensemble methods and neural networks) and uncertainty quantification (Gaussian processes and polynomial chaos expansion). We compare these methods to existing analytic and semi-analytic methods. Such data-driven emulators are poised to replace the methods currently used in N-body simulations, while avoiding the cost of direct simulation. This work is based on a new set of 14,856 SPH simulations of pairwise collisions between rotating, differentiated bodies at all possible mutual orientations.
If mutual gravitational scattering among exoplanets occurs, then it may produce unique orbital properties. For example, two-planet systems that lie near the boundary between circulation and libration of their periapses could result if planet-planet scattering ejected a former third planet quickly, leaving one planet on an eccentric orbit and the other on a circular orbit. We first improve upon previous work that examined the apsidal behavior of known multiplanet systems by doubling the sample size and including observational uncertainties. This analysis recovers previous results that demonstrated that many systems lay on the apsidal boundary between libration and circulation. We then performed over 12,000 three-dimensional N -body simulations of hypothetical three-body systems that are unstable, but stabilize to two-body systems after an ejection. Using these synthetic two-planet systems, we test the planet-planet scattering hypothesis by comparing their apsidal behavior, over a range of viewing angles, to that of the observed systems and find that they are statistically consistent regardless of the multiplicity of the observed systems. Finally, we combine our results with previous studies to show that, from the sampled cases, the most likely planetary mass function prior to planet-planet scattering follows a power law with index -1.1. We find that this pre-scattering mass function predicts a mutual inclination frequency distribution that follows an exponential function with an index between -0.06 and -0.1.
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