This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.
According to climate projection models, the global temperature is expected to rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. According to some studies the expected rise in Serbia is even higher. Global warming may result in creating new areas for forest growth. Although creating new forests would be a positive outcome in some areas, global warming can cause negative impacts in other areas, and this can lead to forest loss and the shift of geographical ranges, or even extinction, of plant species. The European beech is the dominant forest tree species in Serbia, featuring high ecological importance and economic value. In mixed or pure stands, beech forests cover approximately 660,400 ha, accounting for 29.3% of the total Serbian forest area. In the present study, the effects of climate change on the distribution of the European beech stands in Serbia, with an emphasis on their elevation shifts, were examined using species distribution models (SDMs). Data for the present tree cover in Serbia, climate projections, and environmental data were used for model building. The models were first tested against present inventory data. In these tests, the models were found to provide accurate projections, as shown by their true skills statistics (TSS) values ranging from 0.652 to 0.736 and area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.868 to 0.937. The potential distribution patterns predicted by the models indicate that the European beech elevational distribution in Serbia would decrease, exhibiting a significant upward shift in elevation during the first part of this century. Current beech stand locations could be changed, and other areas at higher elevations may be more suitable for beech growth. After 2071, European beech stands at elevations below 500 m would be even smaller. This change is caused by temperature rise and occurrence of climate extremes. However, on the highest elevations, further upward shift of the species is not expected.
Forest management planning is a challenge due to the diverse criteria that need to be considered in the underlying decision-making process. This challenge becomes more complex in joint collaborative management areas (ZIF) because the decision now may involve numerous actors with diverse interests, preferences, and goals. In this research, we present an approach to identifying and quantifying the most relevant criteria that actors consider in a forest management planning process in a ZIF context, including quantifying the performance of seven alternative stand-level forest management models (FMM). Specifically, we developed a combined multicriteria decision analysis and group decision-making process by (a) building a cognitive map with the actors to identify the criteria and sub-criteria; (b) structuring the decision tree; (c) structuring a questionnaire to elicit the importance of criteria and sub-criteria in a pairwise comparison process, and to evaluate the FMM alternatives; and (d) applying a Delphi survey to gather actors’ preferences. We report results from an application to a case study area, ZIF of Vale do Sousa, in North-Western Portugal. Actors assigned the highest importance to the criteria income (56.8% of all actors) and risks (21.6% of all actors) and the lowest to cultural services (27.0% of all actors). Actors agreed on their preferences for the sub-criteria of income (diversification of income sources), risks (wildfires) and cultural services (leisure and recreation activities). However, there was a poor agreement among actors on the sub-criteria of the wood demand and biodiversity criteria. For 27.0% of all actors the FMM with the highest performance was the pedunculate oak and for 43.2% of all actors the eucalypt FMM was the least preferable alternative. The findings indicate that this approach can support ZIF managers in enhancing forest management planning by improving its utility for actors and facilitating its implementation.
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