No abstract

Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth's climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied to a data set of atmospheric dynamics, the method identifies several strongly uplifting regions acting as major gateways of perturbations spreading in the atmosphere. Additionally, the method provides a stricter statistical approach to pathways of atmospheric teleconnections, yielding insights into the Pacific–Indian Ocean interaction relevant for monsoonal dynamics. Also for neuroscience or power grids, the novel causal interaction perspective provides a complementary approach to simulations or experiments for understanding the functioning of complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in increasing their resilience to shocks or extreme events.

An information-theoretic approach for studying synchronization phenomena in experimental bivariate time series is presented. "Coarse-grained" information rates are introduced and their ability to indicate generalized synchronization as well as to establish a "direction of information flow" between coupled systems, i.e., to discern the driving from the driven (response) system, is demonstrated using numerically generated time series from unidirectionally coupled chaotic systems. The method introduced is then applied in a case study of electroencephalogram recordings of an epileptic patient. Synchronization events leading to seizures have been found on two levels of organization of brain tissues and "directions of information flow" among brain areas have been identified. This allows localization of the primary epileptogenic areas, also confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging and pasitron emission tomography scans.

We discuss some problems encountered in inference of directionality of coupling, or, in the case of two interacting systems, in inference of causality from bivariate time series. We identify factors and influences that can lead to either decreased test sensitivity or false detections and propose ways to cope with them in order to perform tests with high sensitivity and a low rate of false positive results.

A directionality index based on conditional mutual information is proposed for application to the instantaneous phases of weakly coupled oscillators. Its abilities to distinguish unidirectional from bidirectional coupling, as well as to reveal and quantify asymmetry in bidirectional coupling, are demonstrated using numerical examples of quasiperiodic, chaotic, and noisy oscillators, as well as real human cardiorespiratory data.

Functional connectivity (FC) analysis is a prominent approach to analyzing fMRI data, especially acquired under the resting state condition. The commonly used linear correlation FC measure bears an implicit assumption of Gaussianity of the dependence structure. If only the marginals, but not all the bivariate distributions are Gaussian, linear correlation consistently underestimates the strength of the dependence. To assess the suitability of linear correlation and the general potential of nonlinear FC measures, we present a framework for testing and estimating the deviation from Gaussianity by means of comparing mutual information in the data and its Gaussianized counterpart. We apply this method to 24 sessions of human resting state fMRI. For each session, matrix of connectivities between 90 anatomical parcel time series is computed using mutual information and compared to results from its multivariate Gaussian surrogate that conserves the correlations but cancels any nonlinearity. While the group-level tests confirmed non-Gaussianity in the FC, the quantitative assessment revealed that the portion of mutual information neglected by linear correlation is relatively minor—on average only about 5% of the mutual information already captured by the linear correlation. The marginality of the non-Gaussianity was confirmed in comparisons using clustering of the parcels—the disagreement between clustering obtained from mutual information and linear correlation was attributable to random error. We conclude that for this type of data, practical relevance of nonlinear methods trying to improve over linear correlation might be limited by the fact that the data are indeed almost Gaussian.

Uncovering the directionality of coupling is a significant step in understanding drive-response relationships in complex systems. In this paper, we discuss a nonparametric method for detecting the directionality of coupling based on the estimation of information theoretic functionals. We consider several different methods for estimating conditional mutual information. The behavior of each estimator with respect to its free parameter is shown using a linear model where an analytical estimate of conditional mutual information is available. Numerical experiments in detecting coupling directionality are performed using chaotic oscillators, where the influence of the phase extraction method and relative frequency ratio is investigated.

How seizures start is a major question in epilepsy research. Preictal EEG changes occur in both human patients and animal models, but their underlying mechanisms and relationship with seizure initiation remain unknown. Here we demonstrate the existence, in the hippocampal CA1 region, of a preictal state characterized by the progressive and global increase in neuronal activity associated with a widespread buildup of low-amplitude high-frequency activity (HFA) (Ͼ100 Hz) and reduction in system complexity. HFA is generated by the firing of neurons, mainly pyramidal cells, at much lower frequencies. Individual cycles of HFA are generated by the near-synchronous (within ϳ5 ms) firing of small numbers of pyramidal cells. The presence of HFA in the low-calcium model implicates nonsynaptic synchronization; the presence of very similar HFA in the high-potassium model shows that it does not depend on an absence of synaptic transmission. Immediately before seizure onset, CA1 is in a state of high sensitivity in which weak depolarizing or synchronizing perturbations can trigger seizures. Transition to seizure is characterized by a rapid expansion and fusion of the neuronal populations responsible for HFA, associated with a progressive slowing of HFA, leading to a single, massive, hypersynchronous cluster generating the high-amplitude low-frequency activity of the seizure.