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A BS TRACT: Background: Subthalamic deep brain stimulation (STN DBS) may relieve refractory motor complications in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. Despite careful screening, it remains difficult to determine severity of alpha-synucleinopathy involvement which influences the risk of postoperative complications including cognitive deterioration. Quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) reflects cognitive dysfunction in PD and may provide biomarkers of postoperative cognitive decline. Objective: To develop an automated machine learning model based on preoperative EEG data to predict cognitive deterioration 1 year after STN DBS. Methods: Sixty DBS candidates were included; 42 patients had available preoperative EEGs to compute a fully automated machine learning model. Movement Disorder Society criteria classified patients as cognitively stable or deteriorated at 1-year follow-up. A total of 16,674 EEG-features were extracted per patient; a Boruta algorithm selected EEG-features to reflect representative neurophysiological signatures for each class. A random forest classifier with 10-fold cross-validation with Bayesian optimization provided class-differentiation.Results: Tweny-five patients were classified as cognitively stable and 17 patients demonstrated cognitive decline. The model differentiated classes with a mean (SD) accuracy of 0.88 (0.05), with a positive predictive value of 91.4% (95% CI 82.9, 95.9) and negative predictive value of 85.0% (95% CI 81.9, 91.4). Predicted probabilities between classes were highly differential (hazard ratio 11.14 [95% CI 7.25, 17.12]); the risk of cognitive decline in patients with high probabilities of being prognosticated as cognitively stable (>0.5) was very limited. Conclusions: Preoperative EEGs can predict cognitive deterioration after STN DBS with high accuracy. Cortical neurophysiological alterations may indicate future cognitive decline and can be used as biomarkers during the DBS screening.

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