ObjectivesThe objective of the study was to examine diagnosis-specific sickness absences of different lengths as predictors of disability retirement in different occupational classes.DesignRegister-based prospective cohort study up to 8 years of follow-up.ParticipantsA 70% random sample of the non-retired Finnish population aged 25–62 at the end of 2006 was included (n=1 727 644) and linked to data on sickness absences in 2005 and data on disability retirement in 2007–2014.Main outcome measuresCox proportional hazards regression was utilised to analyse the association of sickness absence with the risk of all-cause disability retirement during an 8-year follow-up.ResultsThe risk of disability retirement increased with increasing lengths of sickness absence in all occupational classes. A long sickness absence was a particularly strong predictor of disability retirement in upper non-manual employees as among those with over 180 sickness absence days the HR was 9.19 (95% CI 7.40 to 11.40), but in manual employees the HR was 3.51 (95% CI 3.23 to 3.81) in men. Among women, the corresponding HRs were 7.26 (95% CI 6.16 to 8.57) and 3.94 (95% CI 3.60 to 4.30), respectively. Adjusting for the diagnosis of sickness absence partly attenuated the association between the length of sickness absence and the risk of disability retirement in all employed groups.ConclusionsA long sickness absence is a strong predictor of disability retirement in all occupational classes. Preventing the accumulation of sickness absence days and designing more efficient policies for different occupational classes may be crucial to reduce the number of transitions to early retirement due to disability.

The issue of what people consider as reasons for living in poverty is often neglected in the literature on poverty. Studies of public perceptions are needed both on academic grounds and in terms of policy-making processes. In this article, I study three different meanings of poverty: the individualistic, the fatalistic and the structural. I explore whether different meanings can be attributed to specific socio-demographic characteristics, economic circumstances and attitudes towards the welfare state. The data derive from a cross-sectional survey conducted in Finland in 2005 and the results indicate that there is strong consensus in the Finnish population on the causes of poverty. Finns are more likely to blame the flaws and inadequacies of the labour market than the behaviour of individuals or societal injustice. In other words, structural explanations of poverty have the greatest support. However, fatalistic explanations are also supported, since a considerable proportion of people regard bad luck and lack of opportunities as reasons for poverty. Applied multivariate analysis indicates that perceptions of the causes of poverty are at least to some extent related to socio-demographic characteristics, economic circumstances and attitudes to the welfare state. However, the effects, as well as the group differences, are small.

A growing field of discursive institutionalism has argued for the importance of ideas and discourse in policy changes. The aim of the study is to analyse framing effects empirically by examining how, and to what extent, competing frames can shape public opinion on the implementation of a specific policy change. The case study focuses on the administration of social assistance in Finland. Results indicate that the framing of ideas shapes public opinion. Analyses show that some types of frames are more effective than others. To be successful, a politician must simplify the issue and appeal to moral sentiments rather than present too many difficult 'factual' viewpoints. Our study also emphasizes that even frames that succeed in shaping popular opinion may fail if powerful political actors oppose reform. Therefore, we argue that the interplay between the 'old' power resource approach and the 'new' ideational approach should be taken into account when explaining institutional changes.

In the universalistic Nordic welfare states, targeted anti-poverty policies have not been considered as specific aims of social policy. The situation has, however, altered in Finland and there is now a new element in Finnish social policy that can be called ‘anti-poverty policy’. This article explores when, how and why the policy paradigm relating to poverty changed in Finland. It includes an empirical analysis of the documents produced by key actors. Analyses show that the basic idea behind the policy prescriptions for alleviating poverty in Finland has changed from the idea of universalism to the idea of selectivism. The results emphasise that the Church, non-governmental organisations, the European Union’s Lisbon agenda as well as an active opposition politics had an important agenda-setting role behind the ideational turn from universalism to the idea of selectivism.