Introduction. A significant number of accidents and emergencies are initiated by incidents caused by failures of technical facilities and various equipment for reasons related to operational factors. Therefore, the problem of creating new technologies that provide regulation within acceptable limits of the level of risk of dangerous incidents is becoming urgent. Such technologies can be created on the basis of organizing monitoring of real conditions and other operating factors, as well as their regulation through the introduction of appropriate technical and economic mechanisms. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of the dynamics of operational risks in sociotechnical systems based on discrete-event modeling of the processes of occurrence of dangerous failures of technical objects. Methods. When constructing a stochastic model, technical objects are presented as material carriers of emerging and developing degradation changes caused by a certain set of sources of degradation processes that generate a corresponding set of failure modes. Results and discussion. A general model of operational risks has been built, based on the representation of the generalized operating time by an integral functional from the main operational factors and taking into account sets of sources of degradation processes. Analytical expressions are obtained to describe the dynamics of dangerous failures of technical objects and to determine the distribution function of dangerous failures, considering the values of the operating time functional and using three-parameter Weibull distributions. Conclusions. The development of methods for modeling multicomponent risks generated by dangerous failures of technical objects seems to be a promising direction for improving the information and analytical support of risk-based management in specialized systems aimed at reducing socio-economic losses caused by failures of technical objects and various equipment due to minimizing the flow of dangerous incidents generated by the main sources of failures. The proposed model of operational risks can be used in safety systems in solving a number of problems to determine various parameters of reliability and safety of operation of technical objects, as well as in predicting the expected socio-economic damage based on assessing the impact of operational factors on the generalized operating time and changing reliability parameters technical objects. Keywords: reliability and safety indicators, operation of technical objects, set of failure modes, three-parameter Weibull distribution.
Introduction. As a rule, the quantitative assessment of the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks involves the analysis of a large amount of statistical data, but quite often the available sample datasets are not representative or do not meet the requirements for the organization of systematic statistical accounting. Therefore, the scientific substantiation of the admissibility of using expert methods for quantitative assessments of the probabilistic parameters of rare events and phenomena is one of the urgent problems in the field of risk analysis and safety modeling of sociotechnical systems. The purpose of the study is to construct a numerical method for determining the probabilistic parameters of a stochastic model of multicomponent risks based on the procedure of paired comparisons by experts of the possibilities of various outcomes when a threat is realized and accepting a hypothesis about a functional relationship between the results of subjective assessment and objective measurement of probabilities. Methods. When constructing a numerical method, the procedure of pairwise comparisons is performed by experts for particular conditional probabilities of the occurrence of various consequences of the impact of hazardous factors on protected objects related to the given options for performing a set of protection functions. Determining a specific type of functional relationship between the results of a subjective assessment and an objective measurement of probabilities is possible on the basis of a retrospective forecast with the selection of a parameter that achieves the best correspondence between the simulated damage and real statistical data. Results and discussion. A numerical method is proposed for determining the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks, based on the objectification of expert estimates of the probabilities of possible outcomes when exposed to hazardous factors on protected objects. The method of calculating subjective probabilities and their representation in a rank scale with further conversion into numerical values of the scale of ratios of the corresponding objective probabilities is substantiated. Findings. The application of the proposed numerical method for determining the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks based on expert assessments is possible provided that a functional relationship is set between the results of a subjective assessment of the possibility of outcomes and an objective measurement of their probabilities in accordance with Stevens' psychophysical law. Keywords: expert assessments, multicomponent risks, psychophysical law, measurement theory.
Introduction. The development of methods for modeling the flows of events in the occurrence and development of emergency and critical states, designed to solve the problems of supporting the management of rapid response to incidents in conditions of incomplete information, as well as the generation of preventive algorithms for rapid response in emergency situations, seems to be a promising direction for improving information and analytical support of management in security systems. The purpose of the research is to create mathematical tools for predicting emergency and critical conditions in local incidents based on discrete-event modeling of the dynamics of emergency situations. Methods of stochastic modeling are based on the representation of a cascade scenario of the dynamics of the development of accidents and catastrophes by a Markov process using a three-parameter Weibull distribution to set the intensities of transitions between emergency and critical states of adjacent levels. Results and discussion. A general stochastic model is constructed that describes the dynamics of the occurrence and development of accidents and catastrophes of technogenic and natural origin initiated by local incidents according to a cascade scenario with a branching structure with a set of possible elementary states represented in the form of a stratified graph. The main stages of the emergence and development of emergency situations are considered within the framework of the proposed representation of the cascade model by a Markov process with discrete states and continuous time. The expediency of local modeling of individual stages is substantiated based on the description of transitions between states of adjacent levels. Local systems of differential equations corresponding to some of the most probable scenarios for the development of events in the event of incidents are given. Non-stationary solutions of differential equations of Kolmogorov-Chapman are obtained, with assignment of intensities of transitions by three-parameter Weibull distributions. Conclusions. The proposed stochastic model makes it possible to predict the dynamics of the development of emergency and critical states according to a cascade scenario, and also reflects the probability characteristics of the timeliness and effectiveness of possible impacts in a prompt response to incidents. Keywords: stochastic modeling of technogenic accidents, cascade development of accidents and catastrophes, Weibull distribution.
Introduction. The development of fire risk modeling methods seems to be a promising direction for improving the information and analytical support of risk-based management in specialized systems aimed at reducing socio-economic losses from fires by minimizing the flow of incidents generated by the main sources of fire risks. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of fire risks arising from the operation of electrical equipment, based on the development of the concept of fire and electrical damage, which is a complex characteristic of the totality of factors affecting the level of fire hazard of the operation of electrical appliances. Methods for stochastic modeling of fire hazardous failures of electrical equipment are based on the representation of the generalized operating time as an integral functional from the main operational factors, including factors determined by the quality of the consumed electricity. Results and discussion. Based on cognitive modeling, the possibilities of influencing the reduction of damage from fires in the residential sector for electrical reasons are considered when using means for monitoring the quality of consumed electricity. A general model of fire-dangerous failures of electrical equipment has been constructed, which describes the occurrence of individual components of fire-electrical damage, due to the influence of the quality of consumed electricity on an accelerated decrease in the fire-safe resource and an increase in the generalized operating time. A technique is proposed for estimating the maximum service life of electrical equipment in the residential sector, based on modeling the achievement of an acceptable level of ignition probability for electrical reasons during a given service life, taking into account the dynamics of indicators of the quality of consumed electricity. Conclusions. The model of fire-hazardous failures can be used as the basis for creating experimental methods for determining the terms of fire-safe operation of electrical equipment, taking into account deviations in power quality indicators from the normative ones. When registering power quality indicators, modeling of fire hazardous failures makes it possible to quantify the components of fire and electrical damage. Identification of the processes and mechanisms of the occurrence of individual components of fire and electrical damage is necessary when designing a system of risk-based management of the quality of consumed electricity and substantiating a system of measures aimed at improving the quality of electricity consumed and reducing the fire hazard of electrical appliances. Keywords: operation of electrical equipment, indicators of the quality of electricity, fire-safe resource, fire-electric damage.
Introduction. It is shown that the development of methods for modeling multicomponent risks is a promising direction for improving information and analytical support for control in security systems. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of natural, technogenic and anthropogenic risks based on stochastic modeling of the structure of multicomponent risks in socio-technical systems. Methods of stochastic modeling are based on a matrix representation of risk components, detailing the states of the protected object and the probabilistic characteristics of the functioning of security systems. Results and discussion. A method for analyzing multicomponent risks is presented, reflecting in-depth detailing of the states of the protected object and the probabilistic characteristics of the functioning of security systems. A stochastic model has been built that describes the structure of risk as a result of the interaction of two components, a multiplier and an accelerator, associated with various elements of the model, which, respectively, determine the possibility of occurrence of dangerous events, as well as the degree of vulnerability of protected objects. A connection is established between the indicators of expected losses in a certain territory with the presence of forces, means and systems of protection against the effects of hazardous factors and their current state. The procedures for determining the main parameters of the proposed stochastic model based on statistical and expert methods are discussed. A mathematical toolkit has been created for comparative analysis of the effectiveness of measures to reduce risks in socio-technical systems. The problem of multicriteria combinatorial optimization of planned costs and distribution of financial, material, technical and labor resources in territorial security systems is formulated. Conclusions. Methods for modeling multicomponent risks can be used to create effective algorithms for supporting risk-oriented management in security systems. Key words: stochastic modeling, multicomponent risk, socio-technical system, risk management, security system.
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