Аннотация. В статье дано описание потенциальных зон свободной торговли в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе: Транстихоокеанское партнерство, Всеобъемлющее региональное экономическое партнерство, Азиатско-Тихоокеанская зона свободной торговли. Рассмотренная литература позволяет сделать вывод, что эффективность того или иного интеграционного объединения зависит от состава его участников. Чем он разнороднее, тем менее эффективно развивается созданный торговый союз. Максимальные выгоды от реализации интеграционного сценария могут быть достигнуты в случае максимальной близости между интегрирующимися странами по уровню торгового и экономического развития, а также степени регулирования национальной экономики. В связи с этим в настоящей статье принят подход рассмотрения факторов интенсивности торговли и близости стран по экономическому развитию в качестве определяющих для выбора участников торгово-экономической интеграции в рамках тех или иных объединений. В качестве цели исследования определена оценка интеграционного потенциала соглашений о зонах свободной торговли в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Для этого с помощью эконометрических и математических методов произведены расчеты уровня экономической близости и интенсивности внутрирегиональных торговых взаимодействий стран-участниц рассматриваемых интеграционных объединений. В результате определена зона свободной торговли с наибольшим интеграционным потенциалом-Транстихоокеанское партнерство, которое по причине выхода из него США уже прекратило существование. Результаты расчетов продемонстрировали значительное отставание остальных интеграционных объединений от лидера, что может свидетельствовать о недостаточном уровне интеграционного взаимодействия для формирования полноценной интеграционной группировки, дающей положительные торговые и экономические эффекты, либо отсутствии таких форм интеграционного сотрудничества в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском реги
The article conducts a comparative analysis of the trade mega-formats (mega-regional trade agreements) operating in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) in terms of emerging institutional structures and compliance with existing regulations of the World Trade Organization (WTO). As a result, the hypothesis of basing in the medium term the model of functioning of international trade on the rules and regulations of the emerging integration format of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is substantiated, within the framework of which a single trade and economic institutional environment is created, which differs from the functioning environment and organizational structure of the WTO. The high standards set by the CPTPP will determine the rules and regulations of international trade, either through gradual introduction into WTO instruments or by extending the agreement itself to new territories in the process of joining the partnership of the following participants. It is shown that in the medium term it is advisable for the Russian Federation to focus on the integration format of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), free from the geopolitical context and absorbing the main share of mutual trade of countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Potential accession to the CPTPP would require large-scale economic reforms, which could prove quite painful for the country’s economy in the short term. According to the author, the RCEP in its essence and structure is not a mega-regional integration format, but a new large free trade zone without creating a single institutional environment. The main concessions are the reduction of tariff barriers, while in other areas long transition periods are envisaged, allowing for changes without the emergence of shocks in the national economy. This will give Russia the opportunity to expand cooperation with the main trading partners in the region and receive significant economic benefits without resorting to large-scale transformations
Against the background of negotiations crisis within the World Trade Organization framework, as well as increasing competition in the world markets, an important element of the state's economic policy is the integration component. The Russian Federation has chosen the deepening of integration interactions within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as a priority direction in this area. To improve the efficiency of trade integration, it is necessary to increase the total market size. Since the EAEU market has not yet reached the indicators of the other large integration associations (the European Union, etc.), the Union’s members need to conclude agreements with the third countries. The most interesting option in this regard is the rapidly developing Asia-Pacific region (APR). On the basis of results of the free trade agreement between the EAEU and Vietnam the article discusses the integration prospects of the Eurasian block and the Asia-Pacific countries. There are two scenarios: the conclusion of bilateral agreements with the individual regional states and negotiations with the regional integration associations. It was concluded that it is advisable to deepen the integration processes with the main trading partners in the Asia-Pacific region separately, or to conclude a general agreement with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), whose members are almost all the most important states for EAEU (in trade terms) in the region. However, in order to become a full-fledged participant in the negotiations, it is first necessary to sign such an agreement with the ASEAN countries. The results can be used in the economic model development of Russia's integration into the world system and in assessing the prospects for implementation of the national integration strategy.
Количество заключённых ССТ в АТР за год Количество заключённых ССТ в мире за год Количество заключённых ССТ в АТР (нарастающим итогом) Количество заключённых ССТ в мире (нарастающим итогом)
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