We consider a model of persuasion in which an agent who tries to persuade a decision maker can sequentially acquire imperfect signals. The agent's information acquisition is unobservable and he has the option to hide unfavorable signals. Nevertheless, if the signal precision is sufficiently high, he can persuade the decision maker by revealing a sufficiently large number of favorable signals. When the number of signals that can be transmitted to the decision maker is limited, persuasion is impossible if the agent's stakes are too high. (JEL D82, D83)
This article studies a situation in which a sender tries to persuade a receiver by providing hard evidence that is generated by sequential private experimentation where the sender can design the properties of each experiment contingent on the experimentation history. The sender can selectively reveal as many outcomes as desired. We determine the set of equilibria that are not Pareto-dominated. In each of these equilibria under private experimentation, the persuasion probability is lower and the receiver obtains access to higher quality information than under public experimentation. The decision quality improves in the sender's stakes. * Manuscript . 2 Once a regression method is described and the database is public, manipulation is not possible. We make a similar case for logical arguments in footnote 3. Such arguments have persuasive power, and, hence, they can be viewed as decision relevant. Naturally, they are also imperfect.3 Felgenhauer and Schulte (2014) interpret, e.g., logical arguments as decision relevant hard information that result from experimentation: If the assumptions underlying a logical argument are revealed, then they cannot be manipulated. The deductions are logical and logic cannot be manipulated. Logical arguments have persuasive power; therefore, they can be viewed as signals about a decision relevant state of the world. The signals are imperfect, as the underlying assumptions do not cover every real world aspect. A thought experiment (i.e., drawing a set of assumptions and making a deduction) yields a signal. For such arguments the assumption that they are acquired in private by running a series of thought experiments and selectively revealed for persuasion is natural. 829 C (2017) by the
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A sender wishes to persuade a receiver with a (surprising) result that challenges the prior belief. The result stems either from sequential private experimentation or manipulation. The incentive to experiment and to manipulate depends on the quality threshold for persuasion. Higher thresholds make it harder to find a surprising outcome via experimentation and may encourage manipulation. Suppose there are observable nonmanipulable and manipulable research methods. For the decision quality, the quality threshold for persuasion for nonmanipulable methods should be higher than for manipulable methods. We discuss philosophy of science implications, such as field contingent quality standards and P‐value adjustments.
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